Time to buy index for july 2008

May index here
June index here
Explanation here

This month index

In July the index stands at 450 unadjusted(U) and 580 adjusted(A)

This gives a guide that house prices are around 45% over valued and that market sentiment pushes that to 58% over valued. DO NOT BUY

That is not to say that house prices will fall by either, but it gives an idea of the direction.

House prices and mortgage rates have fallen this month which has reduced the index this month.

The unadjusted index is now down from it's peak of 645 in July 2007

The adjusted index has also dropped from 694 last month to 580 this month as swap rates are now seen as falling further. This currently suggests that mortgage rates will be lower in the future.

It is pretty clear that house prices are not 58% over valued, however they may as well be as nobody in their right mind is currently buying.

PREDICTION

House prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009.

In my opinion mortgage lending has pretty much returned to normal even though lenders are still lending above average multipliers and mortgage rates have again returned to a longer term normal level. This has meant that buy to let as one of the key drivers of house prices does not makes economic sense at current rates.