Wednesday, 24 December 2008

Who is going under during the Brown Bust?

I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (most of them are Brown mistakes) -

1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.

I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.

High Street

Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously!
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)

Woolworths - GONE
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out


Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million and he is going under.

Right - that will do for now. Must add some mobile phone companies later today

Tuesday, 23 December 2008

2 great spitting image clips

The first clip is from 1985 and relect the rising unemployment of the time, rather similar to where we are now going

The second clip is again from 1985 and refers to a weak currency, again rather similar to where we are now.

Sunday, 21 December 2008

Gordon Brown to charge the poor penal interest rates

I see Gordon has been sitting in the dark thinking the unthinkable again. It would appear that Gordon wants the social fund (that currently lends at 0% interest) to lend at 27% interest rate.

This is the fund that lends to the most needy in emergencies. This comes on top of his doubling of the tax on the lowest paid and forcing them to fill out long forms to claim any of the money back from his grubby hands.

He may give speeches giving his support for the poor, but his actions speak louder.

Will nobody rid us of this person?

I can't believe that the Miliband brothers cannot muster some sort of No 10 eviction for Gordon.

Tuesday, 16 December 2008

Why an early 2009 election is coming

There is a lot of chatter at the moment on the possibility of an early 2009 election. I offer below some reasons why it may happen.

1 - Brown is keeping the blame for the recession firmly pinned to America's door. The journalists are falling for this and cannot see that Gordon Brown has any responsibility for the mess. As the rest of the world emerges from recession later next year, it will become obvious that we have a worse situation here which can only be blamed on GB. The sooner that Brown goes to the country, the sooner he can test the line that the voters will hold on to him to see us through the crisis, rather than kicking him out and blaming him for the crisis.

2 - If he calls a GE in June 2010, we will either be still in a recession or just out of a recession. If we are still in a recession, he will be taking the blame after more than a year of misery. If we are out of a recession, do we really need his 'save the world' mission.

Thursday, 11 December 2008

Brown Sectioned - another Daily Mash cracker

From the Daily Mash - absolutely class


Mr Brown was admitted to a secure unit and will undergo tests later today

PRIME minister Gordon Brown was last night under observation in a London psychiatric hospital after claiming to be Spiderman.

Mr Brown told the Commons that he had 'vanquished' both Doctor Octopus and the Green Goblin through a combination of superhuman agility and a strange 'sixth sense' he acquired after being bitten by an irradiated spider.

He added: "I can also swing between skyscrapers and I'm very good at science. Have you guessed who I am yet?"

As Commons security staff moved towards him, the prime minister ran from the chamber, throwing his briefing notes in the air and removing his shirt and tie.

Mr Brown was finally captured when he attempted to scale the outside of the Palace of Westminster before falling and twisting his knee.

As he was handcuffed and helped into the back of an ambulance he shouted: "You have bound my hands because you are scared I will use one of my sticky webs!"

A Downing Street source said: "The weird thing is that sometimes he would claim to be Doctor Octopus and make all these terrible decisions and then he'd say, 'only Spiderman can stop me'. And then he'd wink at us."

The source added: "Spiderman was just one of his incarnations. For much of July he thought he was either Dangermouse or Count Duckula."

A police spokesman said last night: "A 57 year-old man from Central London was this evening taken into protective custody under section 4 of the Mental Health Act."

Wednesday, 10 December 2008

So what now for the year ahead?

Talk of a June 2009 General Election has filled me with some hope that Gordon Brown might at last put himself to the vote. And lose.

However on further reflection I would not be at all surprised if he does not manage to blag his way through an election campaign this early.

He is the master of deception, spin and lies. He still has the journalists' ear and can manage to blame this recession on global events and America.

It is only when the rest of the world emerges from whatever downturn is suffered and we are still mired in recession, that the truth will finally dawn on the public.

It is true that the Credit Crunch started in America, but it has only highlighted which countries have prepared the worst for a downturn during a boom.

Gordon is one of the most guilty for borrowing during the good times and leaving us with no room for manoeuvre during the bust.

So as Quarter 3 comes around and the economy has not recovered as Darling has pledged, questions will be asked.

A May 2010 election will see a Tory victory, the introduction of a cap on donations of £50,000 including Unions and the end of the Labour party.

Gotta go soon Gordon - real soon.

However it is said that our children and grand children will pay for Gordon's debt binge. Now this is the benefit of free movement within the EU, for I shall whisk the family off somewhere else and I will not be paying his debt legacy.

Caroline Flint on Daily Politics

She gets grilled by Andrew Neil on Northern Rock

Watch her here

Seema Shah on Daily Politics

The wonderful Seema Shah was back in full bear mode today on the Daily Politics. Watch her here.

Here she is last captured on Sky in May

Gordon Brown saves the world at PMQs

Tripping over his words the hapless Gordon gives us this classic

Friday, 5 December 2008

Time to buy index for November 2008

In October the index stands at 206 unadjusted(U) and 252 adjusted(A)

This gives a guide that house prices are around 20% over valued and that market sentiment pushes that to 25% over valued. DO NOT BUY

That is not to say that house prices will fall by either, but it gives an idea of the direction.

House prices have fallen this month which has reduced the index. Residential rates and buy to let rates have fallen slightly.

The price to average earnings ratio has also fallen this month and is still indicating house prices are 20% above trend on this indicator.

Many buy to let deals have been withdrawn this month as well as last month and those that remain have seen a lowering of the Loan to Value needed. Credit remains tight.

The unadjusted index is now down from it's peak of 645 in July 2007


House prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009.

In my opinion mortgage lending criteria has pretty much returned to normal even though lenders are still lending above average multipliers and mortgage rates have again returned to a longer term normal level.

The end of irresponsible lending means that lenders will never be returning to the days of lending with no deposit or waiving income checks.

House prices are still suspended about 20% above the level of finance that the banks are willing to give out.

Buy to let as one of the key drivers of house prices still does not makes economic sense at current rates. This sector will most likely never return to the heady days of 2007 as the age of irresponsible lending is over.

First time buyers are the main driver of the bottom of the housing market. First time buyers have rightly taken the view that it is best to wait out this drop before entering the market.

Method explanation here

Halifax data out for November 2008

Month on month house prices are down 2.2%. The Halifax report house prices down 14.9% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is 16.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £163,605 for November 2008. A drop of £36,007.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 18.0% from the peak in August 2007 15 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now worse than the 89-95 housing crash and we have only just got going.

The last time house prices were at this level was July 2005.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.

Tuesday, 2 December 2008

Land registry monthly data - November 2008

Latest data out today here showing another monthly fall of 1.5% with an annual fall of 10.1% now.

The graphs on page 12 show the full horror of house sales after a decade of Gordon Brown's debt binge.

To be honest this data is expected to show negative growth now as the data lags the Halifax and Nationwide data by between 3-6 months.

This data series will still be showing monthly falls 3 months or more after the Halifax starts publishing rising monthly prices again. that is not expected until Q4 2009.

1 year to go.

Bank of England mortgage approvals November 2008.

New data out for October 2008 here.

The usual commentary really.

Mortgage approvals for house purchase were 32,000 for October 2008 compared to 88,000 in October 2007 down 63%.

These are now bumping along this level and have been since June and must now signify the bottom of the approvals for home purchase.

Just goes to show how reckless the lending was. Gordon Brown was not the only irresponsible one here. Lenders have now adopted their old lending practices which include such crazy rules like-

checking incomes (barking mad)
capping borrowing at 4 times income (crazy tightness)
requiring a deposit (whatever next)
wanting to know how you intend repaying the mortgage (who thought that one up!)

If Gordon Brown wants lenders to lend again maybe he should mark all property down by another 20% and we can get on with sensible lending (see the 4 points above) on sensibly priced property.

If you are a first time buyer, your time is coming. Keep saving for your 5% deposit, because these deals will return in the later part of 2009. House prices will be down another 15%, mortgage deals will be equivalent to rent and the housing market will start a steady climb from Q4 2009.

Good luck.

Xmas cards from Martin Rowson

Martin Rowson of the Guardian has some Xmas cards that you can print out here.

My favourite is this Gordon Brown's card