Tuesday, 22 September 2009

Labour's visit to Brighton

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Now this made me laugh today.

I was driving through Brighton and I noticed that a hole has been knocked in the side of the Metropole Hotel and a totally covered and sealed walkway has been constructed over the road and into the conference centre.

The coppers would not let me take a photo as I would then become a terror suspect.

So it seems Gordon Brown's last conference is going to see him hermetically sealed from the public, never having to step out of his bubble and breath our air.

I'm in a dilemma

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Up to now I have used this blog to discuss house prices and the absolute ar$e Gordon Brown has made of the economy.

Recently I have sold my business and I am now training to become a teacher and this is where my dilemma lies.

Can I continue to slag off the incompetence of this government, when I am going to be employed as one of GB's state workers? Can I continue to make attack videos? As I am now out of the loop on house prices, can I continue to talk knowledgeably about that market?

I know I cannot discuss my current training role and my experiences in schools, however funny they are.

Any help?

Wednesday, 5 August 2009

Halifax data out for July 2009


They report house prices rose 1.1% or £1747 for the month or down 12.1% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is actually a drop of 10% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £159,623 for July 2009. A drop of £39,989 or a fall of 20%.

House prices are now at their highest level since February 2009 although the last 23 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

With another positive month from Halifax it does seem that the government and Bank of England intervention has succeeded in slowing the rate of house price decline. Halifax acknowledge that the house price to earnings ratio is still above trend by around 10%.

I agree with Halifax's assessment that we are entering a phase of volatile house price data before settling at the end of this year and entering a subdued growth period.

During the last housing market crash between 1989 and 1995, there were 24 +ve months and 48-ve months.

We are now entering a key phase of the housing market. On the positive side - interest rates are low, confidence is returning, lenders will be inclined to increase the Loan to Value (LTV) on mortgage deals as the economy recovers and house prices have fallen 20%.

On the negative side - As the economy recovers so interest rates will rise and reduce mortgage affordability, the regulator is investigating a cap on lending based on earnings which if set too low will cause further falls, we have still not seen major defaults on our sub prime loans due to the slashing if interest rates which has only postponed the problem, unemployment has yet to feed through to mortgage demand, mortgage demand remains low and finally house prices are still around 10% above their trend.

This leads me to conclude that my prediction from 2 years ago is still correct. (As if I would say any different) Although I am sticking with the bottom value I should really push the date back to Q1.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.

I would be inclined to push this low for the housing market on to Q1 2010 still at £140,000. I then expected the housing market to resume a normal trend of increases of around 3%-6%. I now expect house prices to remain subdued for several years afterwards as interest rate increases constrain affordability.

Friday, 24 July 2009

Sky News report Labour admit defeat in Norwich North

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With the result expected at 11.30 this morning, Sky News are now reporting the Labour have admitted defeat in Norwich North.

I am looking forward to some positive Labour spin this afternoon. Top of my list would be

Expenses scandal blah blah
Tories did not break 40%
Gordon Brown has screwed the economy

Question time 23rd July with Galloway and Hoon

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With Hoon and Galloway starring, there is way too much to capture. Some classic Hoons and Galloway on form. Watch it here

Wednesday, 22 July 2009

Norwich North prediction

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Turnout 55%

Conservative 35%
Labour 19%
Lib Dems 18%
Green 10%
UKIP 7%
BNP 3%

What I would like the result to be

Conservative 35%
Lib Dems 20%
Green 15%
Labour 12%
UKIP 11%
BNP 0%

Tuesday, 21 July 2009

New Labour Logo?

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Inspired by a quick visit to Labour's propaganda and lies website I knocked this up.

Original


The true picture

Diary of a fat b'stard - Week 4

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Stats at the beginning of week 4

Weight16st 10lb
belly 118cm

Week 4 highlights

Press ups - 20
Pull ups - 4 up from 1 last week
distance run before stopping - 1.5 km (using the talk test here - if I cannot hold a conversation my pulse is too high for fat burning)
number of times stopped in 3 km - 1
time for 3km - 25 minutes
minutes cycled on bike - 20 (first time in months)
weight bench used - 0
sit up thing - 0

Week 4 Lowlights
None - but I have been slightly ill over the weekend and so have been sober since Wednesday, which is a bummer. I expect most of the weight loss to be illness related water loss.

Stats at the end of week 4

Weight16st 6lb down 4lb
belly 115cm down 3cm

I'm on week 5 now, which ends on monday27th July. Pie and chips tonight - so bollox to the weight loss. I'm on holiday next week with the family at my parents. Expect a large weight loss at the end of week 6 as my mum thinks I am overweight and refuses to feed me.

Treasury accounts embarrassment

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Today I visit my accountant to finalise my ltd company accounts. My company's tax year ends on the 30th June and I have 9 months to finalise my accounts and submit them to companies house.

However because I am an IFA and regulated my the god-awful FSA, they give me just 30 days to finalise my accounts. This results in a huge rush this time of year. I cannot visit the accountant until I have had every statement relating to payments due before 30th June.

So it is even more annoying for me to read that the Treasury have not had their accounts signed off. I doubt Darling will be getting a personal fine as I would. Once again I look forward to being able to hold the Conservative's to account as this Governmenr has now become such a joke, that I no longer find it funny.

Anyway this is the last year for me to worry about the FSA, as I said in a previous post I have had enough of being a small business under New Labour and their FSA incompetents. I have sold the business and I will be persuing other interests.

I will still be a house price obsessive though.

Monday, 20 July 2009

Solution to IE8 tabbed browsing connection problems

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In case anyone else has made the mistake of upgrading to Internet Explorer 8 and is suffering from having the tabs randomly not connecting, I have the solution at last.

It is a conflict with AVG Anti-Virus and the Link Scanner option. I have now disabled link scanner and I have no further connection problems.

Having said that, I have now moved all my bookmarks over to Firefox and I have abandoned Internet Explorer 8 apart from a couple of websites that require IE8.

It is a shame that neither Microsoft or AVG could figure this out or even acknowledge the problem.

Sunday, 19 July 2009

Labour Non-dom donors to stop donations

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Isn't it amazing that when Labour try to manipulate something to their political advantage, it turns round and bites them.

The latest example is the anti-Ashcroft law that Jack Straw is introducing. This law bans non-doms from donating to a political party. However at least 3 Labour non-dom donors have stated that they will not become domiciled and therefore will not be able to continue donating.

A Labour-supporting billionaire who pledged to bankroll Gordon Brown's upcoming general election campaign has told the Observer that he will stop funding the party rather than give up his non-domicile status.

Lord Swraj Paul of Marylebone, who has funded Labour for more than 20 years, said he will no longer donate because of a government-backed bill that forbids from people who do not pay tax on all income from abroad.

Doomed, doomed I tell you

Labour sink towards being the third party in new poll

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The independent has a new poll today with voting intentions

Tory 39%
Labour 23%
Lib Dems 22%

Labour are sinking fast and I would be interested in a geographic breakdown of this poll. I would expect that in England Labour are now firmly in third place.

Labour's vote is starting to become localised in small areas of industrial Northern England. Vast areas of southern England and the midlands has no Labour presence at all.

Labour's power base is disappearing fast.

If Alex Salmond can continue with his popular Scottish politics, then Labour could lose a whole lot of seats there and at last become an irrelevance to UK politics.

Friday, 17 July 2009

Goodwin dined with PM at Chequers as RBS collapsed

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Now there is a surprise! Gordon Brown lunched with Fred the Shred as RBS was building up an economy busting screw up.

No doubt Fred Goodwin was persuading Brown that his crappy regulations were working really well and the FSA were doing their job just fine.

I'd love to know what was the topic of conversation .

IMF latest report on the UK exposes Brown's mess

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Thanks to Fraser Nelson at the Spectator for highlighting this latest report.

Page 10 exposes the dire household debt levels and house prices.

Page 22 seems to be blaming the UK banks for the possibility of further worldwide contagion. These banks of course are operating under Gordon Brown's crappy financial framework headed by the clueless Financial Services Authority.

I guess the rest of the world is now saying 'It started in the UK'

Thursday, 16 July 2009

Another brilliant Daily Mash article.

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FOR CHRIST'S SAKE JUST BUY SOME HELICOPTERS, SAYS EVERYONE



MINISTERS were last night told to stop dicking about and just buy a load of helicopters, for Christ's sake.

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'Rather you than me,' said Mr Ainsworth
People across Britain said that if helicopters will stop soldiers from being blown up in Afghanistan then ministers should really get some of them and stop being such a bunch of arseholes, all the time.

The government has so far refused demands from senior generals to buy more helicopters, insisting they are even more dangerous than the Taleban because if you don't crouch down they can chop the top of your head off.

But Bill McKay, from Doncaster, said: "When it comes to wars and stuff I'm inclined to go with generals and admirals, rather than some bloke called 'Bob Ainsworth' who spent 20 years as a shop steward in Coventry before deciding to sit around on his fat arse all day spending my money."

Emma Bradford, from Stevenage, said: "The problem seems to be bombs at the side of the road. I would suggest we build a huge network of canals, but unfortunately all the Irish are now working in call centres.

"I'm no scientist, but it would appear that the only available option would therefore be some sort of flying machine."

She added: "I know, why don't we get the MPs to hand over the profits they made from all the houses they bought with my money? That's got to be at least three helicopters. Probably quite good ones as well."

Margaret Gerving, a retired headmistress from Surrey, said: "I've noticed there are lots of wind turbines just standing about doing precisely fuck all most of the time. Surely we can use some of the bits to make at least one helicopter?"

And Tom Logan, from Finsbury Park, added: "Do we want a state of the art Olympic velodrome so we can maintain our global dominance at riding a bike, or do we want more live soldiers? It's a tricky one isn't it?"

Tuesday, 14 July 2009

FT HPI data for June 2009

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June's data is here showing a monthly fall of 0.3%. The data here is agreeing that the market is bottoming out with very low historical housing transactions.

The low interest rate policy is allowing housing costs to remain within budget and allowing first time buyers to enter the market with a reasonable mortgage payment as long as a substantial deposit is available.

I expect this data to continue to show small drops and small rises over the next year.

The next 2 key events for the housing market are

1- The FSA are currently reviewing the amount that can be lent in relation to incomes. If the FSA put a cap on this, then expect 15% to come off house prices over the period of a year.

2 - Interest rates. When these are increased back up to a normal level of around 4%, then this will cause further affordability issues. House prices are still 20% above historic price/earnings levels. Expect a 20% fall in house prices.

I use the Halifax data for a prediction of house prices and I still predict a bottoming out in Q4 2009 or Q1 2010 at a level 10% below where we are now. This will be followed by at least a year of virtually no house price growth.

Monday, 13 July 2009

Diary of a fat b'stard - Week 3

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Stats at the beginning of week 3

Weight16st 13lb
belly 119cm

Week 3 highlights

Press ups - 20 up from 10 last week
Pull ups - 3 up from 2 last week
distance run before stopping - 1.5 km up from 100 yards last week (using the talk test here - if I cannot hold a conversation my pulse is too high for fat burning)
number of times stopped in 3 km - 1 down from 10 last week
time for 3km - 25 minutes down from 30 minutes last week
km cycled on bike - 0
weight bench used - 0
sit up thing - 0

Week 3 Lowlights
I have been drinking and eating crap almost every night. I don't know what happened to lose weight. Must try harder or even at all this week.

I'm gasping for a drink tonight, but will do a run later.


Stats at the end of week 3

Weight16st 10lb
belly 118cm

I'm on week 4 now, which ends on monday20th July

Friday, 10 July 2009

Coulson vs McBride

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I still don't get this comparison. I've listened to the comments over the last day and this is how I see it.

McBride was smearing other people and was engaged in dirty tricks. None of it illegal as far as I am aware. After a period of time his boss, Gordon Brown who claimed to know nothing about the matter sacked him.

Some dodgy reporter at the News of the World was engaged in illegal phone hacking. He got sent to prison. Andy Coulson claimed to know nothing about it, but resigned as it had happened whilst he was in charge.

Why does this then make McBride and Coulson similar? surely it is Gordon Brown and Coulson or McBride and the dodgy reporter?

Wednesday, 8 July 2009

Time to buy index for June 2009

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In June the index stands at 303 unadjusted(U) and 378 adjusted(A)

This gives a guide that house prices are around 30% over valued and that market sentiment pushes that to 38% over valued. DO NOT BUY

That is not to say that house prices will fall by either, but it gives an idea of the direction.

The last few months have had conflicting data from Nationwide and Halifax with positive and negative months of house price data. Nationwide have reported growth in the housing market this month, while Halifax have reported a negative month.

During the last house price crash there were 26 positive months during the 74 month downturn.

The index has risen this month for several reasons. Although house prices have risen, mortgage rates for low deposit mortgages have increased.

Although Bank of England rates have fallen, new mortgage deals are being priced at pre-cut levels.

The price to average earnings ratio has also fallen slightly this month and is still indicating house prices are 10% above trend on this indicator.

Most buy to let deals have been withdrawn now and those that remain have seen a lowering of the Loan to Value needed. There exists only one 95% LTV first time buyer deal in the market and this requires a charge on the parents house, so a 90% LTV is the best on offer. Credit remains tight.

Lenders are coming up with more ingenious ways to lend the money as demonstrated by Lloyds with their latest offering including a charge on parents savings accounts. A route that is so full of pitfalls it looks like a horror show to me.

The unadjusted index is now down from it's peak of 645 in July 2007

PREDICTION

House prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009.

In my opinion mortgage lending criteria has tightened more than usual with a larger deposit required than in the past, however lenders are still lending above average multipliers and mortgage rates have again fallen to below the longer term normal level.

The end of irresponsible lending means that lenders will never be returning to the days of lending with no deposit or waiving income checks.

House prices are still suspended about 20% above the level of finance that the banks are willing to give out. Interestingly the £xx billions in extra lending that RBS and Northern Rock have blagged to Gordon Brown is a total farce. The lenders have the money to lend but are applying their new stricter criteria to borrowers. The money will not be lent out any time soon, because many borrowers do not meet the criteria.

Buy to let as one of the key drivers of house prices still does not makes economic sense at current rates. This sector will most likely never return to the heady days of 2007 as the age of irresponsible lending is over.

First time buyers are the main driver of the bottom of the housing market. First time buyers have rightly taken the view that it is best to wait out this drop before entering the market.

Halifax data out for June 2009

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They report house prices fell 0.5% or £828 for the month or down 15% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is actually a drop of 12.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £157,713 for June 2009. A drop of £41,899 or a fall of 20.99%.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 20.99% from the peak in August 2007 22 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now almost twice the scale of the 89-95 housing crash and we are probably just over half way through the duration now.

The last time house prices were at this level was June 2004 or March 2009!.

I agree with Halifax's assessment that we are entering a phase of volatile house price data before settling at the end of this year and entering a subdued growth period.

During the last housing market crash between 1989 and 1995, there were 24 +ve months and 48-ve months.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.

I would be inclined to push this low for the housing market on to Q1 2010 still at £140,000. I then expected the housing market to resume a normal trend of increases of around 3%-6%. I now expect house prices to remain subdued for several years afterwards as interest rate increases constrain affordability.

Diary of a fat b'stard - Week 1and2

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Should have started this 2 weeks ago - as a series of posts with no mention of the housing market or slagging of that useless tw@t Gordon Brown.(apart from that one)

Weighing in at an all time high of 17st 4lbs and a belly of 120cm I have decided at last to take proper action. I have set myself up a little routine and will build it up bit by bit.

The problems so far identified are

1 - portion size, I eat too much. I am generally full half way through my meal and feel stuffed half an hour after the end of my meal. Action taken - halve portion size.

2 - I do no exercise. Not a thing. Action taken - do some exercise!

As is pretty obvious, if energy in is more than energy used the body will store a proportion as fat. If energy used is more than energy consumed then the body will use a proportion of the stored fat.

I should add that I have an exercise bike that I cannot be bothered to use, a weight bench and weights that I cannot be bothered to use and a sit up thing that I cannot be bothered to use.

At the beginning of week 1 I could manage the following

Press ups - 0
Pull ups - 0
distance run before stopping - 50 yards (using the talk test here - if I cannot hold a conversation my pulse is too high for fat burning)
number of times stopped in 3 km - 15
time for 3km - 40 minutes
km cycled on bike - 0
weight bench used - 0
sit up thing - 0

I may use the bike as well (it is sat right behind me staring at me at the moment. I'm such a lazy ar$e because I can watch telly while riding it, but I just cannot do it)

Stats at the beginning of week 2

Weight17st 1b
belly 120cm
Press ups - 10
Pull ups - 2
distance run before stopping - 100 yards (using the talk test here - if I cannot hold a conversation my pulse is too high for fat burning)
number of times stopped in 3 km - 10
time for 3km - 30 minutes
km cycled on bike - 0
weight bench used - 0
sit up thing - 0

I'm on week 3 now, which ends on a monday

Monday, 6 July 2009

OWEN BREAKS WRIST DURING CONTRACT SIGNING - Daily Mash

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Another great spoof from The Daily Mash

MICHAEL Owen has begun his Manchester United career by breaking his wrist in three places while attempting to sign his new contract.

According to the club, Owen passed the medical and then punched the air in delight, slightly spraining his shoulder.

A club spokesman said: "We hoped he would recover quickly after the medical and could at least take part in the first half of the contact signing, but the fountain pen was just too heavy.

"His agent was able to move his hand to form a legally binding signature but then, when Sir Alex congratulated him, he just fell to bits and had to be shovelled-up and carried out in a couple of wheelbarrows."

Owen, currently recuperating in the Louis Saha Memorial Injury Suite, will meet the rest of his team-mates over the next few weeks as they fall apart during pre-season training.

Former Man United player Stephen Malley, said: "The gaffer feels Michael can supply something different as none of the lads have experience of wearing ankle casts on the continent. And he can also teach some of the younger strikers his agonised thigh-clutching technique."

Charlie Reeves, a United fan from Surrey, said: "I remember that goal he scored for England when he was 12. Marvellous. His cheeky little face made him look like one of the sprites from The Magic Flute.

"And now he is playing for my favourite team unless I start supporting Liverpool or Chelsea, or that one with all the nice Jewish people."

Sunday, 5 July 2009

What? The recession is not over?

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Back in November 2008 Gordon Brown told us that the recession would be over by now.

I made a countdown widget which has now stopped counting down.



Incredibly it seems that Gordon Brown has got his figures wrong. Not only are we not out of a recession but the latest GDP data had the recession starting 3 months earlier and the latest quarter being the worst on record.

I have not heard his latest prediction, but at least we have less than a year left of this useless tool.

Wednesday, 1 July 2009

Gordon Brown's best PMQ answer ever - 0% growth

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This made me laugh

Tessa Jowell and Harriet Harperson's faces are a picture

What could they be thinking? Mr 0% maybe

Watch it here



Update

Fraser Nelson has more on Brown's lies and the fact that the 0% growth was not a slip but a rehearsed line!

Recession started 3 months earlier

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I seem to remember Gordon Brown banging on about how the Euro zone went into a recession before us.

With yesterday's GDP revision of Q1 2009 seeing a huge revision downwards catching the headlines, I missed the other news that Q2 2008 was also revised downwards from 0%.

On the year, GDP fell 4.9 percent -- the biggest decline on record. The ONS had previously estimated a fall of 4.1 percent. Back data were also revised down, meaning Britain's recession started in the second quarter of 2008, earlier than thought.

This means that the definition of a recession being 2 consecutive -ve quarters of growth was officially confirmed for Q3 2008 a whole 3 months earlier than Gordon Brown claimed.

Gordon Brown continues to implement the 1983 manifesto

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He is now nationalising the East Coast Rail service.

With Gordon Brown's record I would not be surprised to see the whole thing fail and hundreds lose their jobs.

Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Nationwide June housing data - reporting a rise again!!

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Nationwide have released their June data report today here.

The data shows a rise of 0.9% for the month with an annual change of -9.3%. House prices are now down from their peak in October 2007 of £186,044 by £29,602 or -16%.

Nationwide report this as a surprise bounce and expect a continuation of monthly rises and falls.

Nationwide produces a nice chart on page 2 showing house prices 'fair value' on a mortgage payment affordability measure and around 20% above 'fair value' on an earnings to price ratio.

The problem with the first measure is that the amount being paid on the mortgage payment is pretty volatile. At the moment this figure is substantially lower than during 'normal' economic times.

Most commentators expect house prices to drift lower over the coming months with the larger falls behind us. During the last housing market crash between 1989 and 1995, there were 24 +ve months and 48-ve months.

I expect that as bank mortgage rates creep up, the housing market will continue it's downward correction, but at a much slower pace.

I agree with Nationwide's assessment that we are entering a phase of volatile house price data before settling at the end of this year and entering a subdued growth period.

Saturday, 27 June 2009

How they line up on the spending/cuts debate

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I have been trying to keep a tally on who is on the side of truth and who is on Brown's side.

The side of truth - there will be real term cuts in spending

The Tory party
The Lib Dems
Mervyn King
All other economists
IMF
IFS
Most journalists
Lord Desai
A Darling
Y Cooper
H Benn - new addition from the Dark side

The Dark side - peddling the lies about investment(spending our money) vs cuts

Kevin Maguire
Gordon Brown
Ed Balls
John Denham
Liam Byrne

Labour minister admits to spending cuts

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Hilary Benn has sneaked this out under cover of Michael Jackson's death.

Mr Benn told the BBC programme: "If I look at my department's budget, it is going to go down a bit and therefore we will have to prioritise."

I'm waiting to see how the crazed one will spin that this is not a cut but spending brought forward.

I dare not imagine what other news New Labour has tried to bury.

Friday, 26 June 2009

Land registry monthly data - June 2009

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Latest data out today here showing another monthly fall of 0.2% with an annual fall of 15.9% now.

The graphs on page 12 show the full horror of house sales after a decade of Gordon Brown's debt binge.

To be honest this data is expected to show negative growth now as the data lags the Halifax and Nationwide data by between 3-6 months.

This data series will still be showing monthly falls 3 months or more after the Halifax starts publishing rising monthly prices again. that is not expected until Q4 2009.

6 months to go.

Thursday, 25 June 2009

House prices - how to get the real story

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An informative article in thisismoney had attracted my attention this morning. The article analyses the different house price indices and supports my views that the Halifax and Nationwide are good indices for a general idea of what is happening month by month based on mortgage approval house prices.

The Land Registry and FTHPI indices are good for analysing the data 3 months in arrears.

The Nationwide survey is the next due and is likely to be out either tomorrow or Friday. Will it continue with the trend of increasing house prices or are we due a correction back to the consensus of continued falls.

My Time to Buy index will be out later next week after the Halifax data has been released.

Gordon Brown's 10 worst financial gaffes

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The Times has a great article summarising the shambles that Gordon Brown has organised over the last 12 years.

My favourite - so many to choose from - is no. 7 Failing to spot the housing bubble.

Enjoy

Tuesday, 23 June 2009

Ed Balls threatens good schools

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Ed has a new plan. He wants good schools to be able to take over poorly performing schools, rebrand them, share leadership and improve.

Nothing wrong there in my opinion, we need to improve what we can within a reducing budget.

But here is the New Labour bit.

Mr Balls added that there would be consequences for schools that opted to “go it alone” when it came to their Ofsted inspections. “If you are a school that has got the potential to do this but chooses not to, you’re not making a contribution to other schools in your area. Therefore Ofsted will recognise you aren’t being as ambitious as you could be.”

Ed Balls is learning well from Gordon Brown - his master. Wave the big stick and scare good schools into following your policy.

Monday, 22 June 2009

House prices still falling

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I have been a little slow on updating my data using the FT house price index. This index is a lagging indicator of house prices with the data being around 3 months old.

The data is from the Land Registry and also includes every transaction including properties bought for cash. This is in contrast to the Halifax and Nationwide data which is based on valuation data and is sampled.

The FT HPI data has had a much smoother data set with out wild fluctuations in monthly data.

The latest data set is here and shows house prices continuing to fall, but with the falls starting to moderate with a 0.7% fall for May.

If I remember I will now update this every month along with the Land Registry,Halifax and Nationwide data.

I do not bother with the Rightmove index as it is not seasonally or mix adjusted and is based on asking prices at estate agents, which bears no resemblance to actual purchase prices in this market.

I also do not bother with the DCLG index as this uses the Land Registry data which I already sample.

Saturday, 20 June 2009

Why is Gordon Brown such a liar?

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Today's interview in the Guardian contains the same old lie on Tory cuts.

The Tories have made, for them, a cardinal mistake in that they admitted the truth - that if you take 10% off the health service or schools or policing, you've cut into the jobs, the services, the expectations.

Now we all know that these are based on Labour's own figures and so if the Tories are cutting so are Labour. But the 10% cut figure came about because the Tories are going to protect NHS funding and Labour will not. So if the Tories are protecting the NHS budget, why does Gordon say that 10% could be coming off the NHS budget?

What could have happened in his past to make him such a liar, a deceptor?

Thursday, 18 June 2009

Kitty Usher's redacted expenses - are you having a laugh?

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I've just had a quick look at disgraced Kitty Usher's expenses claim. She is the Treasury Minister who has been avoiding paying tax by flipping her second home designation, just like her boss Alistair Darling.

She has redacted so much of the details that it is impossible to make much sense of her claims.

Here are some screenshots to show the pi$$take.

Tuesday, 16 June 2009

Union turns screw on Gordon Brown

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The BBC is reporting that Unison will no longer give financial support to Labour MPs who do not support its values.

General Secretary Dave Prentis told union members it would not give any more "blank cheques" to the party.

He said Labour MPs and candidates at the next election who backed further privatisation of public services would have funding withdrawn.


Gordon Brown - "Can we have some money Mr Big"
Prentice "Shut up bitch, I'm the Daddy now. From now on you are my missus."
GB "Sigh. Where shall I sign and shall I bend?"

Imagine the uproar if a financial institution withheld funding to the Tories or Lib Dems unless they voted against tightening bank regulation or a building firm withheld funding if they voted to protect green field sites.

The sooner we can rid ourselves of this corrupt party of the Unions the better.

Monday, 15 June 2009

Another brilliant Daily Mash article.

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The Daily Mash does it again

BROWN MAKES ARSE OF NEW THING

GORDON Brown continued his political fightback today by somehow finding a brand new thing to make an arse of.

The deputy prime minister had hoped to restore confidence in his leadership by announcing a full public inquiry into the Iraq War, but changed his mind at the last minute and decided to make a total arse of it instead.

The arseing of the Iraq war inquiry follows hard on the heels of Labour's catastrophic election results and the worst cabinet reshuffle since Gladstone put Gilbert and Sullivan in charge of the Navy in 1884.

And it come just weeks after Mr Brown made a surprisingly comprehensive backside of attempting to reform MPs' expenses, even by his standards.

Junior minister Bill McKay insisted: "Gordon faced a real dilemma. Do you have an inquiry in private that makes it just look as if you care? Or do you have an inquiry in public, accompanied by six months of daily headlines about how the Labour Party is filled to brim with evil, warmongering liars? It's a tricky one."

But Labour backbencher Julian Cook said: "It's actually not that difficult to make decisions that are both popular and the right thing to do.

"The thing about the Iraq War was that it was based on a series of murky decisions made in secret. So it would be an idea to make sure the inquiry into it is at least vaguely unmurky and very much not in secret. But no."

Mr Cook added: "As arseings go it's on a par with the election that never was and could even be up there with the absolute, balls-out fuck-up that was the abolition of the 10p rate of income tax.

"I really thought we'd have to wait until after the summer holidays before he got hold of a new thing and reconfigured it into the shape of a pair of big fat hairy buttocks. He's some guy."

Friday, 12 June 2009

LDV Man vs Peter Hain - Question Time

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Last night's Question Time gave us a classic confrontation between 'LDV Man' and Peter Hain.

Peter serves us up a classic and shows us why Gordon Brown is scraping the bottom of the barrel by putting him back in the cabinet.

Watch it here

Thursday, 11 June 2009

Daily Politics explains Gordon Brown's deceit over budget figures

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Andrew Neil and Robert Chote from the Institute of Fiscal Studies give the best explanation I have heard of Gordon Brown's deceitful budget figures.

Paddy Pantsdown is there at the end to stick the knife in.

Watch it here

Wednesday, 10 June 2009

Gordon Brown accused of cover up

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The Telegraph leads with another expenses based story on Shahid Malik.

Now back in the government after being cleared of any wrong doing in a government report.

Despite talking about transparency in politics, Gordon Brown is refusing to release the report.

Mr Brown was accused of "falling at the first hurdle" in his efforts to reform Westminster by refusing to release the full report of an inquiry into Mr Malik's affairs.

As always watch what Brown does not what he says.

Monday, 8 June 2009

Gordon Brown now requiring 'pledge of loyalty'

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Can Brown get any more like dictatorial? SKY are reporting that Gordon Brown is now requiring ministers to pledge their loyalty.

Minister for farming and the environment Jane Kennedy told Sky News she had had a "full and frank" conversation with the Prime Minister this morning when he had asked her personally to pledge her loyalty to him.

When she said she was unable to, he asked her to leave.

"In the end, I could have stayed, if I had made that pledge of loyalty," she said.

Sounds like the Hitler Oath?

At least Hitler got elected.


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Another brilliant Daily Mash article.

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Gotta love this.

THIS IS HOW THE NAZIS STARTED, SAYS EVERYONE
THE Nazis started out with just a couple of MPs and six percent of the vote you know, everyone said last night.

As the British National Party achieved its first success in a UK-wide election, amateur historians said they would be amazed if this time next year people like you were not in some sort of camp.

Julian Cook, from Hitchin, said: "Having seen The Great Escape, one can only hope that Nick Griffin will decide not to fight a war of total annihilation on two fronts at the same time."

Bill McKay, from Doncaster, added: "First they'll come for the people who watch Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, but I won't speak up because I watch Top Gear and play golf."

But experts insisted the BNP vote would disappear as soon as everyone could afford to go on holiday to Majorca again.

Professor Tom Logan, of Reading University, said: "Prolonged recessions do have a tendency to expose our inner racist fucknut, but it subsides once you get a new credit card."

As the European election results came in, some of Britain's most famous Jews took the 'precautionary step' of changing their Wikipedia entries.

David Baddiel, the writer and comedian, is now described as being of 'good Prussian stock' with a fondness for rowdy beer halls and a deep loathing of Woody Allen films.

Actress Maureen Lipman has changed her name to 'Lipizzanner' and insists her favourite 'ology' is Aryan racial ideology, while Lionel Blue, the gay rabbi, was last night heading for Southampton wearing a blond wig and carrying a large smoked sausage.

Meanwhile Gordon Brown, the new deputy prime minister, said it was always his plan to reduce the Labour vote to 15% and leave Britain with £1.4 trillion worth of debt and a couple of fascists in the European Parliament.

Daniel Hannan South East acceptance speech 8th June 2009 - Go Now Brown

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Quoting Dr Seuss, Daniel Hannan pleads with Gordon Brown to leave.

How much more clearly do we have to speak before you understand us?

Labour 4th place in the south

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In the South East and South West, the Labour party is now less popular than the Tories, UKIP, Lib Dems and the Greens.

In fact Labour came first in only one region, the North East.

What a wipeout.

Sunday, 7 June 2009

Euro poll predictions

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After much thought and predictions - this is my final thought

Tory 24%
Lib Dems 18%
UKIP 16%
Labour 15%
BNP 9%
Greens 8%

The BNP vote will be the end for Brown - at last

Watch Gordon Brown get booed at D-day celebrations

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Our great unelected leader gets booed by our brave veterans. After his Obama beach gaff can things get any worse.

Oh yes - the European election results tonight.

Watch and listen to him here.

The reshuffle task - Gordon Brown faces Lord Sir Alan Sugar in the boardroom

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Gordon Brown faces his final task - the reshuffle. With ministers resigning left, right and centre the task could hardly have been more of a shambles.

Lord Sir Alan Sugar meets with the unelected team leader in the boardroom to hear his delusional summary of the task.

Watch it here

Saturday, 6 June 2009

Gordon Brown - we will fight them on Obama Beach

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A little miss-speak, but it made me laugh.

Friday, 5 June 2009

Labour cease to exist as a local party


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As the dust settles from last nights humiliation at the local elections it is worth noting that Labour are now firmly in third position and sinking fast.

Last night Labour lost over 3 in every 5 councillors standing

Watch Fraser Nelson nail Gordon Brown at todays press conference

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Fraser Nelson of the Spectator nails Gordon Brown on his dodgy figures for budget cuts after the election.

Here it is

Caroline Flint has quit now

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I'm watching his press conference now and the question and answer session is a total car crash.

FFS Flint has quit

She says that Brown is treating her as female window dressing.

What a car crash.

What sort of reshuffle is this?

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As far as I can make out so far

A Darling stays put
J Straw stays put
P Mandelson stays put
D Miliband stays put
G Brown stays put

J Hutton quits
H Blears quits
J Smith quits
J Purnell quits

A reshuffle means moving people around surely

Thursday, 4 June 2009

Adam Boulton SKY News - The lights have gone out in Downing Street

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Watch Adam Boulton SKY News - the lights have gone out in Downing Street

Purnell jumps ship

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shows you what I know

SKY are reporting. Purnell's letter is a blinder.

Labour Cabinet bottlers at 10pm guaranteed

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I know there is a lot of excitement tonight waiting for the clock to strike 10pm, the voting to close and the cabinet resignations to start. But I think this cartoon from the Mirror is spot on.


As the clock strikes 10pm there will be no resignations, there will be no 50 signature letter, there will be nothing but the quietness of the bunch of cowards that this Labour cabinet is.

For crying out loud, how much worse does it have to get?

Time to buy index for May 2009

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In May the index stands at 279 unadjusted(U) and 346 adjusted(A)

This gives a guide that house prices are around 28% over valued and that market sentiment pushes that to 34% over valued. DO NOT BUY

That is not to say that house prices will fall by either, but it gives an idea of the direction.

The last few months have had conflicting data from Nationwide and Halifax with positive and negative months of house price data. Both Halifax and Nationwide have reported growth in the housing market this month.

During the last house price crash there were 26 positive months during the 74 month downturn.

The index has risen this month for several reasons. House prices have risen and mortgage rates for low deposit mortgages have increased. Both of these factors make housing less affordable.

The adjusted index would have been even higher, but with a positive growth month the number of negative factors has reduced.

Although Bank of England rates have fallen, new mortgage deals are being priced at pre-cut levels.

The price to average earnings ratio has also risen slightly this month and is still indicating house prices are 10% above trend on this indicator.

Most buy to let deals have been withdrawn now and those that remain have seen a lowering of the Loan to Value needed. There exists only one 95% LTV first time buyer deal in the market and this requires a charge on the parents house, so a 90% LTV is the best on offer. Credit remains tight.

Lenders are coming up with more ingenious ways to lend the money as demonstrated by Lloyds with their latest offering including a charge on parents savings accounts. A route that is so full of pitfalls it looks like a horror show to me.

The unadjusted index is now down from it's peak of 645 in July 2007

PREDICTION

House prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009.

In my opinion mortgage lending criteria has tightened more than usual with a larger deposit required than in the past, however lenders are still lending above average multipliers and mortgage rates have again fallen to below the longer term normal level.

The end of irresponsible lending means that lenders will never be returning to the days of lending with no deposit or waiving income checks.

House prices are still suspended about 20% above the level of finance that the banks are willing to give out. Interestingly the £xx billions in extra lending that RBS and Northern Rock have blagged to Gordon Brown is a total farce. The lenders have the money to lend but are applying their new stricter criteria to borrowers. The money will not be lent out any time soon, because many borrowers do not meet the criteria.

Buy to let as one of the key drivers of house prices still does not makes economic sense at current rates. This sector will most likely never return to the heady days of 2007 as the age of irresponsible lending is over.

First time buyers are the main driver of the bottom of the housing market. First time buyers have rightly taken the view that it is best to wait out this drop before entering the market.

Voting completed

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I went to vote this morning and it was like Piccadilly Circus at the vote. The staff said that they have never seen it so busy, so maybe the expected low voter turn out is not going to happen. Or maybe all the old duffers had come out early in the sun!

Sadly there was no Labour presence at the door, just Tory and Lib Dem. I was hoping for a lively chat.

Maybe I'll pop up to Burgess Hill this afternoon to find a polling station with some red.

Halifax data out for May 2009 - reporting a rise!


Halifax report this as a surprise bounce and expect a continuation of monthly rises and falls.

During the last housing market crash between 1989 and 1995, there were 24 +ve months and 48-ve months.

They report house prices rose 2.6% or £4075 for the month or down 16.3% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is actually a drop of 13.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £158565 for May 2009. A drop of £41047 or a fall of 20.5%.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 20.5% from the peak in August 2007 21 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now almost twice the scale of the 89-95 housing crash and we are probably just over half way through the duration now.

The last time house prices were at this level was June 2004.

I agree with Halifax's assessment that we are entering a phase of volatile house price data before settling at the end of this year and entering a subdued growth period.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.

2 excellent cartoons today


Brookes from the Times

Matt from the Telegraph

Wednesday, 3 June 2009

The countdown continues

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Gordon Brown now has 1 year and 3 hours until polls close on the last day an election can be held.

I'm not so sure he can hang on for the next 3 hours let alone another year.

Once Brown has gone my job is done and I can get back to my life.

Gordon Brown has a visitor in the bunker

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Warning strong language
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It's exactly what I would like to say to him

No No Lynch him not pinch him


Picture from the Times

Tuesday, 2 June 2009

LABOUR PLOT TO DITCH THE POUND FOR EUROS

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The Express is reporting that secret plans are being drawn up in Government departments for the introduction of the Euro.

Looks like Brown's last move as PM will be to sign us up for the Euro with no referendum.

Can we have a say this time?

A pi$$ poor show from the 'government ' today

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This is turning into a shambles today.

Jaquie Smith resigns but the government can't confirm it.

Tom Watson leaves the Government

Darling got his figures wrong on his expenses repayment (let's not mention his budget)

Gordon Brown nicked the Queens D-day invite

So many other Labour members standing down I have lost track.

Jaqui Smith leaves cabinet

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That's more like it.

Home Secretary is the first big name to go.

Chaytor and Hewitt fall

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David Chaytor and Patricia Hewitt are the latest MPs to fall. But not until the General Election, when they can collect their end of parliament pay off.

It should be noted that Pat is not standing down because of the expenses scandal, but because she has not got a hope of winning Leicester West.

The Lords slate Brown's regulation

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At last.

The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee have reported back and come up with the conclusion that Gordon Brown's financial regulation has failed.

No sh!t Sherlock.

A choice exerpt from the HOL report -

It recommended taking the responsibility for supervising the banking system as a whole away from the FSA and giving it to the Bank of England.

That would be the exact opposite of what our unelected leader did all those years ago that led to the financial crisis in this country.

Whilst the banks bankrupted the country, extended their lending multiples and waived the need for income verification on mortgages, the FSA spent valuable resources chasing me around to make sure I was adhering to their new initiative - Treating Customers Fairly.

I've got news for this government quango - unlike the FSA I operate in a competitive environment. If I don't treat my customers fairly they use someone else and I go bust.

The FSA needs to concentrate on more pressing matters like making sure the banks are not allowing the population to sink further beneath a tide of debt. Or better still the FSA should be abolished and replaced with a regulator that knows what it is doing.

Monday, 1 June 2009

Hoon the flipping rat

No matter how much money he pays back he is still a flipping rat.

See it in action here. I have one and it is the bomb.

The Sun has a great cartoon today

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The Sun has a great cartoon here today.

The end is nigh.

Is this the worst Labour poll ever?

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Tory 40% down 1%
Lib Dems 18% up 4%
Labour 18% down 10%

Details at political betting

The dominoes are falling


Dominoes fallen so far
Gordon Brown becomes unelected leader of the country
Gordon Brown bottles winnable election
Labour Cabinet disconnected with party members
Labour Cabinet tainted with scandal
Gordon Brown does not discipline scandal hit cabinet
Gordon Brown ignores wishes of country for a General election

Dominoes yet to fall
Cabinet members hounded out of office by media
Ed Balls appointed chancellor
Labour party in open revolt
Gordon Brown will not step down and limps on
General Election sees Labour just ahead of Lib Dems in seat share and behind on vote share
Labour civil war
Lib Dems become official opposition

Sunday, 31 May 2009

Gordon Brown found on Andrew Marr show

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Gordon proposes a lot more talk and reviews on every subject that we want action on. Gordon seems to believe that taking action means setting up reviews.

Interestingly he says he will not stand down even if it means the Labour party will not suffer such a large defeat at the next General Election.

Give the party back to the party members. Give the country back to the people.

Saturday, 30 May 2009

Let's celebrate - Gordon hits another rock bottom

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Can my day get any better? PB are reporting a Telegraph poll showing

CON 40(+1) LD 25 (+5)LAB 22(-6)

At last Labour hit third place in the HoP voting

Happy days - off to crack open the Whiskey.

I'm camping in the garden with the kids so I needed a tonic.

Friday, 29 May 2009

Disaster poll for Gordon Brown

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From the Times

Tory 41 up 2
Labour 21 down 5
Lib Dems 15 down 2


European elections
Tory 30
UKIP 19
Labour 16
Lib Dems 12
Greens 10
BNP 5

Nationwide May housing data - reporting a rise!!

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Nationwide have released their May data report today here.

The data shows a rise of 1.2% for the month with an annual change of -11.3%. House prices are now down from their peak in October 2007 of £186,044 by £32,028 or -17%.

Nationwide report this as a surprise bounce and expect a continuation of monthly rises and falls.

During the last housing market crash between 1989 and 1995, there were 24 +ve months and 48-ve months.

I agree with Nationwide's assessment that we are entering a phase of volatile house price data before settling at the end of this year and entering a subdued growth period.

Wednesday, 27 May 2009

McNulty pays back dodgy mortgage claims

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Under cover of the Telegraph campaign against these troughing turds, it appears McNulty has repaid some mortgage interest and council tax that he was not allowed to claim.

Why are these Fckers still ministers?

Monday, 25 May 2009

Darling charges me for tax advice

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Unbelievable - Alistair Darling is in charge of such a complicated tax system left by Gordon Brown, that he has to charge us the tax payer for advice from his accountant on how best to claim his tax free allowances.

For the love of GOD let us have a General Election and we can decide which of this filth to sweep away.

Tuesday, 19 May 2009

Gordon Brown acts on expenses - sort of

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At today's Press Conference Gordon Brown took decisive action on the expenses scandal by announcing that he is publishing a consultation document on setting up a committee to look at MPs expenses.

Get that? No action now on tackling expenses now. Another fking consultation period with no doubt an independent review after that.

Why can this useless turd not make any decisions? Why can he not act now? And why are McNulty, Smith and Blears still in their jobs?

Friday, 15 May 2009

2nd Labour MP claims for non-mortgage

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Just in.

Labour MP David Chaytor has claimed £13000 for a mortgage that has been repaid.

Possible criminal enquiry.

More to follow.

Tory expenses now being published online

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The Tory expenses are now being published online as they are claimed here. A step in the right direction.

I wonder if Gordon Brown dare publish his MPs expenses anytime soon. I think it is probably time for another review from Gordon.

Hello Gordon? Leadership please! Hello, Hello anyone there?

Shahid Malik and his massage chair

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Shahid Malik appearing on SKY News has come up with a legendary car crash of an interview. The highlight is the massage chair.

Watch him here and see him squirm.

Thursday, 14 May 2009

Even newer poll low for Gordon Brown

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A new You Gov poll in the Sun has Labour down on 22%. Yes 22%. Tories on 41% and Lib dems on 19%.

Can Gordon drag Labour any lower. Oh yes he can!!

Vote No to Gordon Brown

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Having watched this dreadful Labour election video I thought I would adapt it to represent my views.

This is the original video. My version is beneath this video.



here it is

Balls/Cooper injunction?

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Please God let this be true. Guido is reporting that he has not received an injunction from Blinky Balls and his Mrs Yvette Cooper, but there are rumours going around about an injunction in the offing.

This will so be the final nail in those troughing Scumbags if this is true. At least Andrew MacKay has jumped before being pushed.

Did I hear SKY saying that the Tories were all going to be put up for reselection by their constituencies?

Liar Loans - are the FSA about to do something?

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Discovered by the BBC in 2003 and blogged about by myself here in 2008, the FSA may finally be doing something about this.

The BBC has this here.

An incredible 45% of all mortgages in 2007 had no proof of income on the file!!

Tuesday, 12 May 2009

Cameron - sack and fine these troughers now


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OK to be fair they can't be sacked, but an example has to be made of people who followed the rules, but clearly did not use the expenses system for the purpose it was intended. Withdraw the whip,

Oh Cameron just on SKY news - he is really pi$$ed about this. Quite right too.

It is obvious Gordon Brown is going to do nothing about his troughers. I think The Tory troughers are going to have a bad day.

Sunday, 10 May 2009

How the Tories can finish Labour off over expenses

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The Telegraph are due to publish the expenses of the Tories in the next few days. I still think that delaying the publication is part of a greater plot.

Personally I don't care about claims for Kit Kats and home furnishings. I care about property flipping. Designating and re-designating different properties so you can claim more expenses is bang out of order.

I also care about second homes being designated when the MP's family is living there. Again it is a scam. I don't care if it within any rules it is fraud.

So when the Tories have their role call of shame, I expect and hope Cameron will come out and say that abuse of second home designation and property flipping is such an error of judgement, that he will discipline that MP. Either by removing the whip, a fine to pay back the funds or kicking out of the shadow cabinet.

Gordon Brown has now taken 2 days to do absolutely nothing to his abusers. The list is too long, but J Smith, McNulty and Blears spring to mind.

Cameron can at last put a line under his leadership ability and show what he could do as PM.

Saturday, 9 May 2009

23% !!!

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Latest poll Labour on 23%.

Message to Labour MPs

For Fs sake stop troughing and kick out your useless leader.

We all deserve better.

Friday, 8 May 2009

Andy Burnham - troughing excuses

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Now this wound me up. Andy Burnham defends his expenses claims by saying

I wish to make clear to you in the strongest possible terms that I resent any suggestion that I have knowingly misused public funds as the public record shows that, in the last five years, I have under-claimed on my ACA by around £40,000.

Under claimed??

You are supposed to be claiming for expenses! You are not 'Under claiming' if you do not claim up to the limit. These fuckers do not even understand the concept of claiming expenses.

Gordon Brown - aren't expenses brilliant

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Here is the marvellous Fast Show and Paul Whitehouse doing their 'brilliant' sketch.


Here is mine




No matter how much I use software to alter my voice and impersonate Paul Whitehouse, it's a million miles away. No matter, the thought is there.

Wednesday, 6 May 2009

Watch Gordon Brown miss the bullying joke here

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Poor old Gordon Brown misses the joke again at PMQs. I actually wish the Tory backbenchers had asked some serious questions over policy, even though they will not get an answer. Questioning like this just makes you look like you are at the same low level as the Government.

Leave the teasing to the media.

Time to buy index for April 2009

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In April the index stands at 189 unadjusted(U) and 265 adjusted(A)

This gives a guide that house prices are around 19% over valued and that market sentiment pushes that to 26% over valued. DO NOT BUY

That is not to say that house prices will fall by either, but it gives an idea of the direction.

The last few months have had conflicting data from Nationwide and Halifax with positive and negative months of house price data. Halifax are back with the trend now with a -1.7% fall. During the last house price crash there were 26 positive months during the 74 month downturn.

House prices have fallen this month, which has improved affordability this month as mortgage rates have remained level.

Although Bank of England rates have fallen, new mortgage deals are being priced at pre-cut levels.

The price to average earnings ratio has also fallen slightly this month and is still indicating house prices are 10% above trend on this indicator.

Most buy to let deals have been withdrawn now and those that remain have seen a lowering of the Loan to Value needed. There exists only one 95% LTV first time buyer deal in the market and this requires a charge on the parents house, so a 90% LTV is the best on offer. Credit remains tight.

The unadjusted index is now down from it's peak of 645 in July 2007

PREDICTION

House prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009.

In my opinion mortgage lending criteria has tightened more than usual with a larger deposit required than in the past, however lenders are still lending above average multipliers and mortgage rates have again fallen to below the longer term normal level.

The end of irresponsible lending means that lenders will never be returning to the days of lending with no deposit or waiving income checks.

House prices are still suspended about 20% above the level of finance that the banks are willing to give out. Interestingly the £xx billions in extra lending that RBS and Northern Rock have blagged to Gordon Brown is a total farce. The lenders have the money to lend but are applying their new stricter criteria to borrowers. The money will not be lent out any time soon, because many borrowers do not meet the criteria.

Buy to let as one of the key drivers of house prices still does not makes economic sense at current rates. This sector will most likely never return to the heady days of 2007 as the age of irresponsible lending is over.

First time buyers are the main driver of the bottom of the housing market. First time buyers have rightly taken the view that it is best to wait out this drop before entering the market.