Tuesday, 14 July 2009

FT HPI data for June 2009

June's data is here showing a monthly fall of 0.3%. The data here is agreeing that the market is bottoming out with very low historical housing transactions.

The low interest rate policy is allowing housing costs to remain within budget and allowing first time buyers to enter the market with a reasonable mortgage payment as long as a substantial deposit is available.

I expect this data to continue to show small drops and small rises over the next year.

The next 2 key events for the housing market are

1- The FSA are currently reviewing the amount that can be lent in relation to incomes. If the FSA put a cap on this, then expect 15% to come off house prices over the period of a year.

2 - Interest rates. When these are increased back up to a normal level of around 4%, then this will cause further affordability issues. House prices are still 20% above historic price/earnings levels. Expect a 20% fall in house prices.

I use the Halifax data for a prediction of house prices and I still predict a bottoming out in Q4 2009 or Q1 2010 at a level 10% below where we are now. This will be followed by at least a year of virtually no house price growth.

No comments: