Wednesday, 8 July 2009

Halifax data out for June 2009


They report house prices fell 0.5% or £828 for the month or down 15% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is actually a drop of 12.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £157,713 for June 2009. A drop of £41,899 or a fall of 20.99%.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 20.99% from the peak in August 2007 22 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now almost twice the scale of the 89-95 housing crash and we are probably just over half way through the duration now.

The last time house prices were at this level was June 2004 or March 2009!.

I agree with Halifax's assessment that we are entering a phase of volatile house price data before settling at the end of this year and entering a subdued growth period.

During the last housing market crash between 1989 and 1995, there were 24 +ve months and 48-ve months.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.

I would be inclined to push this low for the housing market on to Q1 2010 still at £140,000. I then expected the housing market to resume a normal trend of increases of around 3%-6%. I now expect house prices to remain subdued for several years afterwards as interest rate increases constrain affordability.

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