Thursday, 4 June 2009

Halifax data out for May 2009 - reporting a rise!

Halifax report this as a surprise bounce and expect a continuation of monthly rises and falls.

During the last housing market crash between 1989 and 1995, there were 24 +ve months and 48-ve months.

They report house prices rose 2.6% or £4075 for the month or down 16.3% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is actually a drop of 13.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £158565 for May 2009. A drop of £41047 or a fall of 20.5%.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 20.5% from the peak in August 2007 21 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now almost twice the scale of the 89-95 housing crash and we are probably just over half way through the duration now.

The last time house prices were at this level was June 2004.

I agree with Halifax's assessment that we are entering a phase of volatile house price data before settling at the end of this year and entering a subdued growth period.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.

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