Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Nationwide June housing data - reporting a rise again!!

Nationwide have released their June data report today here.

The data shows a rise of 0.9% for the month with an annual change of -9.3%. House prices are now down from their peak in October 2007 of £186,044 by £29,602 or -16%.

Nationwide report this as a surprise bounce and expect a continuation of monthly rises and falls.

Nationwide produces a nice chart on page 2 showing house prices 'fair value' on a mortgage payment affordability measure and around 20% above 'fair value' on an earnings to price ratio.

The problem with the first measure is that the amount being paid on the mortgage payment is pretty volatile. At the moment this figure is substantially lower than during 'normal' economic times.

Most commentators expect house prices to drift lower over the coming months with the larger falls behind us. During the last housing market crash between 1989 and 1995, there were 24 +ve months and 48-ve months.

I expect that as bank mortgage rates creep up, the housing market will continue it's downward correction, but at a much slower pace.

I agree with Nationwide's assessment that we are entering a phase of volatile house price data before settling at the end of this year and entering a subdued growth period.

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