Monday, 22 June 2009

House prices still falling

I have been a little slow on updating my data using the FT house price index. This index is a lagging indicator of house prices with the data being around 3 months old.

The data is from the Land Registry and also includes every transaction including properties bought for cash. This is in contrast to the Halifax and Nationwide data which is based on valuation data and is sampled.

The FT HPI data has had a much smoother data set with out wild fluctuations in monthly data.

The latest data set is here and shows house prices continuing to fall, but with the falls starting to moderate with a 0.7% fall for May.

If I remember I will now update this every month along with the Land Registry,Halifax and Nationwide data.

I do not bother with the Rightmove index as it is not seasonally or mix adjusted and is based on asking prices at estate agents, which bears no resemblance to actual purchase prices in this market.

I also do not bother with the DCLG index as this uses the Land Registry data which I already sample.


Anonymous said...

Crown Blog

The Land Registry figures do NOT include properties sold at auction. According to them, auctions do not represent 'the market price' of a property. You couldn't relaly make it up!

And, by now, how you can possibly take any figures provided by a Government department as the truth is completely beyond me.

AntiCitizenOne said...

A nice graph would be useful here...

WV: nonpr [Blogger can mind read :) ]

CROWN said...

I know it has become hard to trust any government figures, but I have faith that someone somewhere is recording factually correct information on house prices.

I agree with Land reg that it is right to exclude auction prices as these are most likely being sold below market price, although the auction price will have a downward pressure on house price over the medium term.