Friday, 29 August 2008

Another great Matt Cartoon

Not the best HPC cartoon we have had and there is a long way down to go until houses cost pocket money but the sentiment is right.

Matt Cartoon

Thursday, 28 August 2008

Fionnuala Earley on SKY 28th August 2008 in full

In all her glory

Watch for her spluttering her way to say "negative equity"

Nationwide August data out today

Nationwide have released their August data report today here

The data shows a drop of 1.9% for the month with an annual change of -10.5%. House prices are now down from their peak in October 2007 of £186,044 by over £21,000 or -11.5%.

Good news for first time buyers looking to enter the market as house prices become more affordable. Not so good news for those who overstretched themselves and jumped on the property bandwagon in the last few years.

Dreadful news for all those property speculators who bought second and third properties. Tough. Serves them right for taking property off the market and forcing up prices for first time buyers.

Maybe Gordon Brown will now pay attention to speculative bubbles and act sooner to prevent them expanding rather than dithering around watching them BOOM and then BUST.

Watch Fionnuala Earley and the 10.5% drop here

Wednesday, 27 August 2008

Brown to take charge of by-election

It appears that Gordon Brown is going to take charge of the Glenrothes by-election.

Looks like the last throw of the dice for Gordon at last.

The outcome

either a defeat for Labour and the end of Gordon once and for all.


a narrow win for Labour and Gordon can scrape along for a bit longer.

Can't wait to hear the date for the by-election.

Thursday, 7 August 2008

Time to buy index for july 2008

May index here
June index here
Explanation here

This month index

In July the index stands at 450 unadjusted(U) and 580 adjusted(A)

This gives a guide that house prices are around 45% over valued and that market sentiment pushes that to 58% over valued. DO NOT BUY

That is not to say that house prices will fall by either, but it gives an idea of the direction.

House prices and mortgage rates have fallen this month which has reduced the index this month.

The unadjusted index is now down from it's peak of 645 in July 2007

The adjusted index has also dropped from 694 last month to 580 this month as swap rates are now seen as falling further. This currently suggests that mortgage rates will be lower in the future.

It is pretty clear that house prices are not 58% over valued, however they may as well be as nobody in their right mind is currently buying.


House prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009.

In my opinion mortgage lending has pretty much returned to normal even though lenders are still lending above average multipliers and mortgage rates have again returned to a longer term normal level. This has meant that buy to let as one of the key drivers of house prices does not makes economic sense at current rates.

Halifax data out for July 2008

month on month house prices are down 1.7%. The Halifax report house prices down 8.8% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is 10.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. July 2007 average house price was £198,936 against £177,351 for July 2008.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 11.15% from the peak in August 2007 11 months ago. It took from May 1989 to September 1992 for house price to fall 9.65% that is 41 months.

Wednesday, 6 August 2008

Even Fionnuala Earley thinks the stamp duty bribe will not work

Personally I think that bribing first time buyers to enter a falling market is criminal.

FE does not think it will work either.

Watch her here

Darling and the stamp duty fiasco

As predicted Darling and Brown are creating another fiasco over proposed changes to stamp duty.

1) Another totally unfunded tax promise that uses the people's money to bail out the housing industry.

2) It has been widely reported as a stamp duty holiday where stamp duty is not paid on purchases within a certain timescale. This will have the effect of stalling the market even more as potential buyers now wait and see what changes are to take effect.

3) The proposal is actually a deferral of payment of stamp duty. So the stamp duty is paid at a later date, again stalling the market and just another amount of money that needs to be repaid.

Why this government cannot just make an announcement with immediate effect I do not know. Almost everything they do has the opposite effect and makes financial markets more certain that we are totally leaderless and rudderless at the moment.

Saturday, 2 August 2008

Sir Alan Sugar writes in the SUN today

Sir Alan Sugar writes an article in the SUN today here

I have a lot of respect for SAS but when he writes an article like this I realise he should stick to what he knows best like selling car aerials rather than getting involved in politics and sounding like a jumped up barrow boy.

SAS says

We all need to understand that Gordon Brown has not caused the things which are making us unhappy.

So he has not done the following has he? Taxed my pension fund with a stealth tax that he never announced, announced to the markets he was going to sell our gold reserves and then sold at a record low, doubled the tax on the lowest paid and refused to accept they would be worse off, increased the tax on older cars in the name of green taxes, taxed us and spent the taxes and did not put money aside for a rainy day, increased the national debt during an unprecedented economic boom, presided over the biggest housing boom ever which priced out millions of people, encouraged first time buyers to buy half a house at the top of the housing market bubble, presided over a housing crash that will dwarf the Tory crash, increased taxes on small business as the economy goes into a recession.

He says

It reminds me of my days as a football club chairman. Walk out of the ground after giving the opponents a good hiding and the fans would chant: “Alwight, Al . . . top man . . . keep up the good work, mate . . . how’s the family . . . well done, son.”

A week later when we got our arse kicked, the SAME group chanted: “Oi, you tosser, what you gonna do about the team then, eh ... get your f***ing chequebook out, you f***ing w*****.”

He does not get it - the spurs fans always thought he was a W*****, but were prepared to be polite to him when Spurs were winning.

The country has a natural dislike of Brown because he stabbed Blair in the back and became our PM without anyone voting for him. Not the electorate and not the Labour party.

If Brown had not spent so many years saying how he had built this wonderful economy, then maybe he would be forgiven for his economy diving down the toilet.

Friday, 1 August 2008

Fionnula Earley on Bloomberg 31st July 2008

Highlights - watch clip below.

FE - "House prices falling for the rest of this year."

Jeremy Naylor - "In your report you say house prices are still £11,000 higher than 3 years ago, how long until that is sliced off?"

FE - "Difficult to know blah blah......

JN - "National Housing Federation say house price will be 25% higher in 5 years...."

FE - "Sounds a little optimistic" laughs nervously "to be 25% higher than 2007 lows" Even FE is a bear now!