Why an early 2009 election is coming

There is a lot of chatter at the moment on the possibility of an early 2009 election. I offer below some reasons why it may happen.

1 - Brown is keeping the blame for the recession firmly pinned to America's door. The journalists are falling for this and cannot see that Gordon Brown has any responsibility for the mess. As the rest of the world emerges from recession later next year, it will become obvious that we have a worse situation here which can only be blamed on GB. The sooner that Brown goes to the country, the sooner he can test the line that the voters will hold on to him to see us through the crisis, rather than kicking him out and blaming him for the crisis.

2 - If he calls a GE in June 2010, we will either be still in a recession or just out of a recession. If we are still in a recession, he will be taking the blame after more than a year of misery. If we are out of a recession, do we really need his 'save the world' mission.