At Davos Brown has said the global financial reminds him of Titian the famous painter who after finishing his 100th painting at age 90 said he was only just learning how to paint.
As opposed to Brown who after 10 years in charge of our economy realised he had not a clue that loads of debt was bad and that low savings was also bad. In fact if lenders are allowed to relax lending criteria and create a housing bubble, then this is learning the lessons rather than a resigning matter.
Who established our regulatory framework that failed to regulate the banks properly?
Saturday, 31 January 2009
0% mortgage rate 0% savings rate Gordon Brown bliss
The Times are reporting that if rates are cut next month, then some mortgage holders will be paying 0.01% interest on their mortgages.
I am sure Gordon Brown is pleased now - debters pay no interest and savers receive no interest. Perfectly summing up his chancellorship. ar$e about face.
His debt fuelled economic vision is in tatters. With some hope and pride we can pull ourselves from this mess, but not with Gordon Brown in charge. He got us into this mess and he will not get us out.
If the man cannot admit any of his mistakes or even that the boom has bust, how can he be the man to lead us out of the mess.
I am sure Gordon Brown is pleased now - debters pay no interest and savers receive no interest. Perfectly summing up his chancellorship. ar$e about face.
His debt fuelled economic vision is in tatters. With some hope and pride we can pull ourselves from this mess, but not with Gordon Brown in charge. He got us into this mess and he will not get us out.
If the man cannot admit any of his mistakes or even that the boom has bust, how can he be the man to lead us out of the mess.
Friday, 30 January 2009
Darling spoof on Twitter
Absolutely brilliant
here it is
with these good uns
Just got off the phone to GB. He's panicking about Sterling. I tried to reassure him by pointing out that gold was way up but he went quiet. Oh great.The UK is about to lose its AAA rating.That'll be embarrassing when I next meet the other chancellors (apart from Iceland and Cuba)
The 2.5 vat reduction is textbook Labour + all about job creation. It doesnt really help consumers or retailers but think of all that admin!
GB has a wicked sense of humour. I love it when he pretends to be all 'angry with the banks' and we have to try really hard not to giggle.
here it is
with these good uns
Just got off the phone to GB. He's panicking about Sterling. I tried to reassure him by pointing out that gold was way up but he went quiet. Oh great.The UK is about to lose its AAA rating.That'll be embarrassing when I next meet the other chancellors (apart from Iceland and Cuba)
The 2.5 vat reduction is textbook Labour + all about job creation. It doesnt really help consumers or retailers but think of all that admin!
GB has a wicked sense of humour. I love it when he pretends to be all 'angry with the banks' and we have to try really hard not to giggle.
Bank of England mortgage approvals for December 2008.
New data out for December 2008 here.
The usual commentary really.
Mortgage approvals for house purchase were 31,000 for December 2008 compared to 81,000 a year earlier and 129,000 2 year ago.
These are now bumping along a range around 30,000 and have been since June and must now signify the bottom of the approvals for home purchase.
Just goes to show how reckless the lending was. Gordon Brown was not the only irresponsible one here. Since lenders have now adopted their old lending practices, the mortgage approvals have collapsed down to a very low base.
As properties continue to fall in price to meet the demand at the lower level, lending will pick up again.
If you are a first time buyer, your time is coming. Keep saving for your 5% deposit, because these deals will return in the later part of 2009. House prices will be down another 15%, mortgage deals will be equivalent to rent and the housing market will start a steady climb from Q4 2009.
Good luck.
The usual commentary really.
Mortgage approvals for house purchase were 31,000 for December 2008 compared to 81,000 a year earlier and 129,000 2 year ago.
These are now bumping along a range around 30,000 and have been since June and must now signify the bottom of the approvals for home purchase.
Just goes to show how reckless the lending was. Gordon Brown was not the only irresponsible one here. Since lenders have now adopted their old lending practices, the mortgage approvals have collapsed down to a very low base.
As properties continue to fall in price to meet the demand at the lower level, lending will pick up again.
If you are a first time buyer, your time is coming. Keep saving for your 5% deposit, because these deals will return in the later part of 2009. House prices will be down another 15%, mortgage deals will be equivalent to rent and the housing market will start a steady climb from Q4 2009.
Good luck.
Thursday, 29 January 2009
Nationwide January housing data out today
Nationwide have released their January data report today here.
The data shows a drop of 1.3% for the month with an annual change of -16.6%. House prices are now down from their peak in October 2007 of £186,044 by over £35,543 or -19.1%.
An interesting graph in this month's report on page 1 - house price to earnings ratio. This shows there is still a long way to go down to reach 'fair' value.
I have also noticed that Fionnuala Earley has not got her name on this report. I wonder if she will still entertain us on the news today.
Good news for first time buyers looking to enter the market as house prices become more affordable. Not so good news for those who overstretched themselves and jumped on the property bandwagon in the last few years.
Now that Gordon Brown's time is almost up, maybe the authorities will never again mistake a boom for stability.
The data shows a drop of 1.3% for the month with an annual change of -16.6%. House prices are now down from their peak in October 2007 of £186,044 by over £35,543 or -19.1%.
An interesting graph in this month's report on page 1 - house price to earnings ratio. This shows there is still a long way to go down to reach 'fair' value.
I have also noticed that Fionnuala Earley has not got her name on this report. I wonder if she will still entertain us on the news today.
Good news for first time buyers looking to enter the market as house prices become more affordable. Not so good news for those who overstretched themselves and jumped on the property bandwagon in the last few years.
Now that Gordon Brown's time is almost up, maybe the authorities will never again mistake a boom for stability.
Wednesday, 28 January 2009
IMF GDP forecasts don't look good
The IMF has made it's latest guess forecast for GDP in 2009 and 2010.
Bottom of the list is Gordon Brown's indebted UK at -2.8% worse than Italy at -2.1%. But it's OK the IMF forecast 2010 GDP will be growing again at 0.2% beating Italy who are forecast to still be contracting at -0.1%.
Interestingly Germany at -2.5% and +0.1% is not forecast to be that much better.
Personally I think the IMF makes it up as they go along. I don't think anyone with a say knows the extent of the lies told in the UK mortgage market, which will have a huge effect on individuals ability to spend their way out of the recession.
Now that lenders have tightened up lending criteria including checking incomes (at last) the scale of the mess is evident.
Just to prove my point I had an inquiry this morning from someone who has a £200,000 interest only mortgage and earns £25,000 a year.
How did a lender make the decision to lend him 8 times his income with no means of repaying the mortgage at the end of the mortgage term. This is not a one off, this is the normal situation at the first time buyer end of the market.
I would say our economy would still be contracting in 2010, with only minimal growth in 2011.
Bottom of the list is Gordon Brown's indebted UK at -2.8% worse than Italy at -2.1%. But it's OK the IMF forecast 2010 GDP will be growing again at 0.2% beating Italy who are forecast to still be contracting at -0.1%.
Interestingly Germany at -2.5% and +0.1% is not forecast to be that much better.
Personally I think the IMF makes it up as they go along. I don't think anyone with a say knows the extent of the lies told in the UK mortgage market, which will have a huge effect on individuals ability to spend their way out of the recession.
Now that lenders have tightened up lending criteria including checking incomes (at last) the scale of the mess is evident.
Just to prove my point I had an inquiry this morning from someone who has a £200,000 interest only mortgage and earns £25,000 a year.
How did a lender make the decision to lend him 8 times his income with no means of repaying the mortgage at the end of the mortgage term. This is not a one off, this is the normal situation at the first time buyer end of the market.
I would say our economy would still be contracting in 2010, with only minimal growth in 2011.
Tuesday, 27 January 2009
Daily Mash - I WARNED OF CRISIS TEN YEARS AGO THEN DID ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT IT, SAYS BROWN
Another great Daily Mash offering
GORDON Brown yesterday said he warned of the financial crisis 10 years ago but did nothing to stop it because, quite frankly, he wants us all dead.
In a speech to the Foreign Press Association in London, Mr Brown said: "At any point I could have stepped in and made the necessary changes that would at least have protected the UK, what with me being chancellor of the exchequer and everything. But then I thought 'where's the fun in that?'.
GORDON Brown yesterday said he warned of the financial crisis 10 years ago but did nothing to stop it because, quite frankly, he wants us all dead.
In a speech to the Foreign Press Association in London, Mr Brown said: "At any point I could have stepped in and made the necessary changes that would at least have protected the UK, what with me being chancellor of the exchequer and everything. But then I thought 'where's the fun in that?'.
"I was watching that new Batman film the other night and there's a bit where Michael Caine - he plays the butler - says that 'some men aren't looking for anything logical, some men just want to watch the world burn'. That's me, that is.
"Now some people are saying that my bank bail outs aren't working and if I'm not careful I'll end up destroying our entire financial system and bankrupting the country. Well, d'uh!"
Mr Brown added: "I'm not right in the head. I've been setting fire to stuff recently. Just small stuff. Books, furniture, cats.
"They keep giving me these little yellow pills, but I don't think they're working. If anything they make me even angrier and I just want to start bigger and bigger fires.
"I guess it's only a matter of days now before I set fire to a car. Then it'll be a church, a hospital, a row of quaint, terraced cottages. I'm just letting you know."
Friday, 23 January 2009
GDP -1.5% for Q4 2008
worst since 1980!!
£ hits new 25 year lows against the $
falling against the Euro
£ hits new 25 year lows against the $
falling against the Euro
£ getting close to 25 year lows against $ again
down at $1.366 at the moment
update
£ touched at $1.3638 - 25 year low
update
£ touched at $1.3638 - 25 year low
Thursday, 22 January 2009
Who is going under during the Brown Bust? Update 4
update 26th January 2009
I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (some of them are Brown mistakes) -
1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.
5 - Not protecting yourself financially from outside influence.
I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.
Still going
High Street
Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously! update 12th January 2009 - in administration
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)
Borders
Sports
Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million.
Mobile
Phones 4 U
Holiday
Must be one more by April
Airline
a few of the short haul airlines will be struggling now, although there is a fuel price bonus at the moment.
Builder
Barratt Homes
Caught in the Brown bust
Zavvi - in administration
Woolworths - administrator appointed
MFI - administrator appointed
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out
Land of Leather - shares suspended, administrator lined up
Sofa Workshop - administrator lined up
Waterford Wedgwood - administrator appointed
USC - administrator appointed
Morgan - administrator appointed
Rosebys - administrator appointed
The Pier - administrator appointed
Adams - administrator appointed
Viyella - administrator appointed
Nortel Networks UK - administrator appointed
update 26th January 2009
The Real Hotel Company - administrator appointed
Sofa Workshop Limited - administrator appointed
Barratts and PriceLess (shoe shops) - administrator appointed
Holiday
XL administrator was appointed in September
'Celebrities'
Lorne Spicer - TV money expert bankrupt
It is important to remember that these company failings are in no way the fault of the government, however the failures during the 80s and 90s were the Tories fault according to Gordon Brown.
I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (some of them are Brown mistakes) -
1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.
5 - Not protecting yourself financially from outside influence.
I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.
Still going
High Street
Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously! update 12th January 2009 - in administration
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)
Borders
Sports
Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million.
Mobile
Phones 4 U
Holiday
Must be one more by April
Airline
a few of the short haul airlines will be struggling now, although there is a fuel price bonus at the moment.
Builder
Barratt Homes
Caught in the Brown bust
Zavvi - in administration
Woolworths - administrator appointed
MFI - administrator appointed
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out
Land of Leather - shares suspended, administrator lined up
Sofa Workshop - administrator lined up
Waterford Wedgwood - administrator appointed
USC - administrator appointed
Morgan - administrator appointed
Rosebys - administrator appointed
The Pier - administrator appointed
Adams - administrator appointed
Viyella - administrator appointed
Nortel Networks UK - administrator appointed
update 26th January 2009
The Real Hotel Company - administrator appointed
Sofa Workshop Limited - administrator appointed
Barratts and PriceLess (shoe shops) - administrator appointed
Holiday
XL administrator was appointed in September
'Celebrities'
Lorne Spicer - TV money expert bankrupt
It is important to remember that these company failings are in no way the fault of the government, however the failures during the 80s and 90s were the Tories fault according to Gordon Brown.
Tuesday, 20 January 2009
Jim Rogers - investment Guru says sell Sterling
Actually not just sell Sterling but short Sterling as well. He says the City of London is where the economic problems started and is a disaster.
Bloomberg headlines the clip with 'Rogers says UK is finished' and he is probably right.
Watch the clip here
Gordon Brown says that our economy is best placed to weather this storm.
Now who has their money at stake here and who has the taxpayer's money at stake. Who to trust, who not to trust.
Bloomberg headlines the clip with 'Rogers says UK is finished' and he is probably right.
Watch the clip here
Gordon Brown says that our economy is best placed to weather this storm.
Now who has their money at stake here and who has the taxpayer's money at stake. Who to trust, who not to trust.
Rightmove agrees with my housing market forecast.
Nice to see Rightmove coming on board for a housing market bottom later this year as I am forecasting.
Actually it is slightly worrying me because Rightmove has consistently overestimated house price growth. They have the usual vested interest in the housing market being buoyant and so cannot be relied upon to give impartial forecasts. Maybe I should revise my forecast downwards now. We'll see.
Interesting that they have seen only 43416 new listings in January 2009 compared to 89,110 in January 2008. I wonder how many estate agents are now not using Rightmove to advertise properties in a bid to cut costs.
From my use of property bee I estimate that at least 1 in 3 of these 'new' listings is just the estate agents changing the details slightly. I then get an e-mail from Rightmove with details of 'new' properties to buy, which contains the old properties with a slight amendment to the details.
Actually it is slightly worrying me because Rightmove has consistently overestimated house price growth. They have the usual vested interest in the housing market being buoyant and so cannot be relied upon to give impartial forecasts. Maybe I should revise my forecast downwards now. We'll see.
Interesting that they have seen only 43416 new listings in January 2009 compared to 89,110 in January 2008. I wonder how many estate agents are now not using Rightmove to advertise properties in a bid to cut costs.
From my use of property bee I estimate that at least 1 in 3 of these 'new' listings is just the estate agents changing the details slightly. I then get an e-mail from Rightmove with details of 'new' properties to buy, which contains the old properties with a slight amendment to the details.
Who is going under during the Brown Bust? Update 3
Update 20th January 2009
I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (some of them are Brown mistakes) -
1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.
5 - Not protecting yourself financially from outside influence.
I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.
Still going
High Street
Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously! update 12th January 2009 - in administration
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)
Borders
Sports
Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million.
Mobile
Phones 4 U
Holiday
Must be one more by April
Airline
a few of the short haul airlines will be struggling now, although there is a fuel price bonus at the moment.
Builder
Barratt Homes
Caught in the Brown bust
Woolworths - administrator appointed
MFI - administrator appointed
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out
Land of Leather - shares suspended, administrator lined up
Sofa Workshop - administrator lined up
Waterford Wedgwood - administrator appointed
USC - administrator appointed
Morgan - administrator appointed
Rosebys - administrator appointed
The Pier - administrator appointed
Adams - administrator appointed
Viyella - administrator appointed
Nortel Networks UK - administrator appointed
Holiday
XL administrator was appointed in September
Update 20th January 2009
'Celebrities'
Lorne Spicer - TV money expert bankrupt
It is important to remember that these company failings are in no way the fault of the government, however the failures during the 80s and 90s were the Tories fault according to Gordon Brown.
I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (some of them are Brown mistakes) -
1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.
5 - Not protecting yourself financially from outside influence.
I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.
Still going
High Street
Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously! update 12th January 2009 - in administration
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)
Borders
Sports
Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million.
Mobile
Phones 4 U
Holiday
Must be one more by April
Airline
a few of the short haul airlines will be struggling now, although there is a fuel price bonus at the moment.
Builder
Barratt Homes
Caught in the Brown bust
Woolworths - administrator appointed
MFI - administrator appointed
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out
Land of Leather - shares suspended, administrator lined up
Sofa Workshop - administrator lined up
Waterford Wedgwood - administrator appointed
USC - administrator appointed
Morgan - administrator appointed
Rosebys - administrator appointed
The Pier - administrator appointed
Adams - administrator appointed
Viyella - administrator appointed
Nortel Networks UK - administrator appointed
Holiday
XL administrator was appointed in September
Update 20th January 2009
'Celebrities'
Lorne Spicer - TV money expert bankrupt
It is important to remember that these company failings are in no way the fault of the government, however the failures during the 80s and 90s were the Tories fault according to Gordon Brown.
Friday, 16 January 2009
Who is going under during the Brown Bust? Part 2
2nd update 16th January 2009
I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (some of them are Brown mistakes) -
1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.
5 - Not protecting yourself financially from outside influence.
I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.
High Street
Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously! update 12th January 2009 - in administration
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)
Borders
Woolworths - administrator appointed
MFI - administrator appointed
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out
update 12th January 2009
Land of Leather - shares suspended, administrator lined up
Sofa Workshop - administrator lined up
Waterford Wedgwood - administrator appointed
USC - administrator appointed
Morgan - administrator appointed
Rosebys - administrator appointed
The Pier - administrator appointed
Adams - administrator appointed
Viyella - administrator appointed
update 16th January 2009
Nortel Networks UK - administrator appointed
Sports
Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million.
Mobile
Phones 4 U
Holiday
XL administrator was appointed in September
Must be one more by April
Airline
a few of the short haul airlines will be struggling now, although there is a fuel price bonus at the moment.
Builder
Barratt Homes
It is important to remember that these company failings are in no way the fault of the government, however the failures during the 80s and 90s were the Tories fault according to Gordon Brown.
I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (some of them are Brown mistakes) -
1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.
5 - Not protecting yourself financially from outside influence.
I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.
High Street
Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously! update 12th January 2009 - in administration
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)
Borders
Woolworths - administrator appointed
MFI - administrator appointed
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out
update 12th January 2009
Land of Leather - shares suspended, administrator lined up
Sofa Workshop - administrator lined up
Waterford Wedgwood - administrator appointed
USC - administrator appointed
Morgan - administrator appointed
Rosebys - administrator appointed
The Pier - administrator appointed
Adams - administrator appointed
Viyella - administrator appointed
update 16th January 2009
Nortel Networks UK - administrator appointed
Sports
Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million.
Mobile
Phones 4 U
Holiday
XL administrator was appointed in September
Must be one more by April
Airline
a few of the short haul airlines will be struggling now, although there is a fuel price bonus at the moment.
Builder
Barratt Homes
It is important to remember that these company failings are in no way the fault of the government, however the failures during the 80s and 90s were the Tories fault according to Gordon Brown.
Thursday, 15 January 2009
Wednesday, 14 January 2009
Tuesday, 13 January 2009
UK Trade Deficit Worst Since 1697
SKY are reporting that the trade deficit in November was the worst since records began.
On first reading I thought this read 1967 or 1976.
I thought the collapse in Sterling was supposed to help with our exports!
I suppose the global crisis (that started in America) is to blame for this as well.
On first reading I thought this read 1967 or 1976.
I thought the collapse in Sterling was supposed to help with our exports!
I suppose the global crisis (that started in America) is to blame for this as well.
Monday, 12 January 2009
Who is going under during the Brown Bust?
1st update 12 January 2009
I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (some of them are Brown mistakes) -
1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.
5 - Not protecting yourself financially from outside influence.
I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.
High Street
Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously! update 12th January 2009 - in administration
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)
Borders
Woolworths - administrator appointed
MFI - administrator appointed
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out
update 12th January 2009
Land of Leather - shares suspended, administrator lined up
Sofa Workshop - administrator lined up
Waterford Wedgwood - administrator appointed
USC - administrator appointed
Morgan - administrator appointed
Rosebys - administrator appointed
The Pier - administrator appointed
Adams - administrator appointed
Viyella - administrator appointed
Sports
Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million.
Mobile
Phones 4 U
Holiday
XL administrator was appointed in September
Must be one more by April
Airline
a few of the short haul airlines will be struggling now, although there is a fuel price bonus at the moment.
Builder
Barratt Homes
It is important to remember that these company failings are in no way the fault of the government, however the failures during the 80s and 90s were the Tories fault according to Gordon Brown.
I am assuming here that the Brown Bust lasts from 3rd quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2010. Most of the list are put together from the following factors (some of them are Brown mistakes) -
1 - expanding during a boom with no thought of a slowdown
2 - overdependent on 1 revenue source
3 - not modernising
4 - The Brown classic - taking on way, way too much debt.
5 - Not protecting yourself financially from outside influence.
I reckon most of these that fail, will be picked up by another organisation as demonstrated by Whittards and officer club this week.
High Street
Burton - (Green closes this down)
Tie Rack
Waterstones (HMV closes this down)
Zavvi - obviously! update 12th January 2009 - in administration
Cafe Nero
Focus (DIY)
Plumbase (part of Grafton Grp)
Wickes (part of Travis Perkins)
Borders
Woolworths - administrator appointed
MFI - administrator appointed
Whittards - Private Equity sale
The Officers Club - Management buy out
update 12th January 2009
Land of Leather - shares suspended, administrator lined up
Sofa Workshop - administrator lined up
Waterford Wedgwood - administrator appointed
USC - administrator appointed
Morgan - administrator appointed
Rosebys - administrator appointed
The Pier - administrator appointed
Adams - administrator appointed
Viyella - administrator appointed
Sports
Formula 1 - way too expensive, dependent on Ad revenue and owned by a massively indebted organisation.
Manchester United - over £600 million in debt
Liverpool - owes £350 million to RBS and Wachovia to be renegotiated in 2009
Chelsea - owes Abramovitch £550 million.
Mobile
Phones 4 U
Holiday
XL administrator was appointed in September
Must be one more by April
Airline
a few of the short haul airlines will be struggling now, although there is a fuel price bonus at the moment.
Builder
Barratt Homes
It is important to remember that these company failings are in no way the fault of the government, however the failures during the 80s and 90s were the Tories fault according to Gordon Brown.
Is McNulty going to eat his words?
Today Gordon has announced that he is stealing the Tories' policy for giving £2500 to companies hiring long term unemployed.
Back in November Tory boy McNulty said the Tory plans would not work.
Calling the Tories the 'do nothing' party and then nicking their policy may seem a bit hypocritical to some, but then this is Gordon Brown's Labour party we are talking about.
I wonder if TB McNulty will be allowed on the TV to eat his words( he was not allowed on The daily Politics, where Hain was made to suffer Andrew Neil's cutting scorn)
Back in November Tory boy McNulty said the Tory plans would not work.
Calling the Tories the 'do nothing' party and then nicking their policy may seem a bit hypocritical to some, but then this is Gordon Brown's Labour party we are talking about.
I wonder if TB McNulty will be allowed on the TV to eat his words( he was not allowed on The daily Politics, where Hain was made to suffer Andrew Neil's cutting scorn)
Saturday, 10 January 2009
With spelling like this
Ok, OK so the spelling is correct - but you know what I mean. Click for a larger image.
Tuesday, 6 January 2009
So how accurate was the Nationwide 2008 house price forecast?
In November 2007, Nationwide made their house price forecasts for the year ahead.
These forecasts were woefully wrong and contributed to my feelings that Nationwide have been ramping up house prices during the boom years, sucking in millions of first time buyers.
Watch a video here.
Now that house prices are in a full crash, Nationwide do not want to make a forecast for next year. I suspect that they know full well that it will be negative.
To me this raises questions on the ethical nature of a mortgage lender making forecasts. Millions of home owners will now wish they had ignored Nationwide's forecasts and thought a little longer and maybe read some articles on asset bubbles, booms and busts (none written by Gordon Brown).
I wonder if these home owners will vent their anger on the Nationwide for their dodgy forecasts or the global events or maybe Gordon Brown for it was he who established this regulatory structure that has allowed a debt binge by the government, individuals and companies to bring the country to it's knees.
These forecasts were woefully wrong and contributed to my feelings that Nationwide have been ramping up house prices during the boom years, sucking in millions of first time buyers.
Watch a video here.
Now that house prices are in a full crash, Nationwide do not want to make a forecast for next year. I suspect that they know full well that it will be negative.
To me this raises questions on the ethical nature of a mortgage lender making forecasts. Millions of home owners will now wish they had ignored Nationwide's forecasts and thought a little longer and maybe read some articles on asset bubbles, booms and busts (none written by Gordon Brown).
I wonder if these home owners will vent their anger on the Nationwide for their dodgy forecasts or the global events or maybe Gordon Brown for it was he who established this regulatory structure that has allowed a debt binge by the government, individuals and companies to bring the country to it's knees.
Nationwide December housing data out today
Nationwide have released their December data report today here.
The data shows a drop of 2.5% for the month with an annual change of -15.9%. House prices are now down from their peak in October 2007 of £186,044 by over £32,996 or -17.7%.
Nationwide continue to peddle the line that house prices are higher than x years ago, where x becomes longer ago, the more prices fall.
An interesting line in this month's report - continuing uncertainty means forecasts can be misleading. I bet that does not stop Fionnuala Earley from making some forecasts though.
Good news for first time buyers looking to enter the market as house prices become more affordable. Not so good news for those who overstretched themselves and jumped on the property bandwagon in the last few years.
Now that Gordon Brown's time is almost up, maybe the authorities will never again mistake a boom for stability.
The data shows a drop of 2.5% for the month with an annual change of -15.9%. House prices are now down from their peak in October 2007 of £186,044 by over £32,996 or -17.7%.
Nationwide continue to peddle the line that house prices are higher than x years ago, where x becomes longer ago, the more prices fall.
An interesting line in this month's report - continuing uncertainty means forecasts can be misleading. I bet that does not stop Fionnuala Earley from making some forecasts though.
Good news for first time buyers looking to enter the market as house prices become more affordable. Not so good news for those who overstretched themselves and jumped on the property bandwagon in the last few years.
Now that Gordon Brown's time is almost up, maybe the authorities will never again mistake a boom for stability.
Friday, 2 January 2009
Time to buy index for December 2008
In December the index stands at 208 unadjusted(U) and 292 adjusted(A)
This gives a guide that house prices are around 20% over valued and that market sentiment pushes that to 29% over valued. DO NOT BUY
That is not to say that house prices will fall by either, but it gives an idea of the direction.
House prices have fallen this month which has reduced the index. Residential rates and buy to let rates have fallen, although the rates for first time buyers are high in comparison to other rates.
Although Bank of England rates have fallen, new mortgage deals are being priced at pre-cut levels.
The price to average earnings ratio has also fallen this month and is still indicating house prices are 10% above trend on this indicator.
Many buy to let deals have been withdrawn now and those that remain have seen a lowering of the Loan to Value needed. Credit remains tight.
The unadjusted index is now down from it's peak of 645 in July 2007
PREDICTION
House prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009.
In my opinion mortgage lending criteria has pretty much returned to normal even though lenders are still lending above average multipliers and mortgage rates have again returned to a longer term normal level.
The end of irresponsible lending means that lenders will never be returning to the days of lending with no deposit or waiving income checks.
House prices are still suspended about 20% above the level of finance that the banks are willing to give out.
Buy to let as one of the key drivers of house prices still does not makes economic sense at current rates. This sector will most likely never return to the heady days of 2007 as the age of irresponsible lending is over.
First time buyers are the main driver of the bottom of the housing market. First time buyers have rightly taken the view that it is best to wait out this drop before entering the market.
This gives a guide that house prices are around 20% over valued and that market sentiment pushes that to 29% over valued. DO NOT BUY
That is not to say that house prices will fall by either, but it gives an idea of the direction.
House prices have fallen this month which has reduced the index. Residential rates and buy to let rates have fallen, although the rates for first time buyers are high in comparison to other rates.
Although Bank of England rates have fallen, new mortgage deals are being priced at pre-cut levels.
The price to average earnings ratio has also fallen this month and is still indicating house prices are 10% above trend on this indicator.
Many buy to let deals have been withdrawn now and those that remain have seen a lowering of the Loan to Value needed. Credit remains tight.
The unadjusted index is now down from it's peak of 645 in July 2007
PREDICTION
House prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009.
In my opinion mortgage lending criteria has pretty much returned to normal even though lenders are still lending above average multipliers and mortgage rates have again returned to a longer term normal level.
The end of irresponsible lending means that lenders will never be returning to the days of lending with no deposit or waiving income checks.
House prices are still suspended about 20% above the level of finance that the banks are willing to give out.
Buy to let as one of the key drivers of house prices still does not makes economic sense at current rates. This sector will most likely never return to the heady days of 2007 as the age of irresponsible lending is over.
First time buyers are the main driver of the bottom of the housing market. First time buyers have rightly taken the view that it is best to wait out this drop before entering the market.
Bank of England mortgage approvals December 2008.
New data out for November 2008 here.
The usual commentary really.
Mortgage approvals for house purchase were 27,000 for November 2008 compared to 82,000 in November 2007 down 67%.
These are now bumping along a range around 30,000 and have been since June and must now signify the bottom of the approvals for home purchase.
Just goes to show how reckless the lending was. Gordon Brown was not the only irresponsible one here. Lenders have now adopted their old lending practices which include such crazy rules like-
checking incomes (barking mad)
capping borrowing at 4 times income (crazy tightness)
requiring a deposit (whatever next)
wanting to know how you intend repaying the mortgage (who thought that one up!)
If Gordon Brown wants lenders to lend again maybe he should mark all property down by another 20% and we can get on with sensible lending (see the 4 points above) on sensibly priced property.
If you are a first time buyer, your time is coming. Keep saving for your 5% deposit, because these deals will return in the later part of 2009. House prices will be down another 15%, mortgage deals will be equivalent to rent and the housing market will start a steady climb from Q4 2009.
Good luck.
The usual commentary really.
Mortgage approvals for house purchase were 27,000 for November 2008 compared to 82,000 in November 2007 down 67%.
These are now bumping along a range around 30,000 and have been since June and must now signify the bottom of the approvals for home purchase.
Just goes to show how reckless the lending was. Gordon Brown was not the only irresponsible one here. Lenders have now adopted their old lending practices which include such crazy rules like-
checking incomes (barking mad)
capping borrowing at 4 times income (crazy tightness)
requiring a deposit (whatever next)
wanting to know how you intend repaying the mortgage (who thought that one up!)
If Gordon Brown wants lenders to lend again maybe he should mark all property down by another 20% and we can get on with sensible lending (see the 4 points above) on sensibly priced property.
If you are a first time buyer, your time is coming. Keep saving for your 5% deposit, because these deals will return in the later part of 2009. House prices will be down another 15%, mortgage deals will be equivalent to rent and the housing market will start a steady climb from Q4 2009.
Good luck.
Land registry monthly data - December 2008
Latest data out here showing another monthly fall of 1.9% with an annual fall of 12.2% now.
The graphs on page 12 show the full horror of house sales after a decade of Gordon Brown's debt binge.
To be honest this data is expected to show negative growth now as the data lags the Halifax and Nationwide data by between 3-6 months.
This data series will still be showing monthly falls 3 months or more after the Halifax starts publishing rising monthly prices again. that is not expected until Q4 2009.
The graphs on page 12 show the full horror of house sales after a decade of Gordon Brown's debt binge.
To be honest this data is expected to show negative growth now as the data lags the Halifax and Nationwide data by between 3-6 months.
This data series will still be showing monthly falls 3 months or more after the Halifax starts publishing rising monthly prices again. that is not expected until Q4 2009.
Halifax data out for December 2008
Month on month house prices are down 2.2%. The Halifax report house prices down 16.2% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.
The true yearly drop is 18.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £159,896 for December 2008. A drop of £39,716.
The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%
House prices have fallen 19.9% from the peak in August 2007 15 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.
This housing crash is now worse than the 89-95 housing crash and we are probably half way through now.
The last time house prices were at this level was August 2004.
Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.
The true yearly drop is 18.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £159,896 for December 2008. A drop of £39,716.
The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%
House prices have fallen 19.9% from the peak in August 2007 15 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.
This housing crash is now worse than the 89-95 housing crash and we are probably half way through now.
The last time house prices were at this level was August 2004.
Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.
Thursday, 1 January 2009
My New Year message
Only one full year to go now Gordon. Then I will have my chance to vote you out and stop you wasting my tax money.
If you had any moral compass, you would resign and let one of your up and coming underlings like Ed Balls (snigger) take over for the last lap of this Labour marathon of waste and mis-management.
God save our souls.
If you had any moral compass, you would resign and let one of your up and coming underlings like Ed Balls (snigger) take over for the last lap of this Labour marathon of waste and mis-management.
God save our souls.
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