Friday, 3 April 2009

Halifax data out for March 2009

They report house prices down 1.9% for the month or down 17.5% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is 17.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £157,326 for March 2009. A drop of £42,286.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 21.2% from the peak in August 2007 19 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now almost twice the scale of the 89-95 housing crash and we are probably just over half way through the duration now.

The last time house prices were at this level was May 2004.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.


Anonymous said...

Hi Crown

The guy who reckons you're wrong about the predicition!

You asked the time frame I saw for house prices falling another 50% or so. 2 to 4 years is my guess.

I think the government are going to cause a bull trap though in the coming months. I could see a revival in house prices whilst interest rates are at such ridciulous levels. But once interest rates rise (and they will - by a lot!), the next leg downwards will occur.

We'll see who's right but, presently, house prices are still massively overvalued on any historic basis.

Oldrightie said...

If Labour's standing goes the same way, I would be almost glad to see my house value fall!

CROWN said...

Anonymous - welcome back.

I can see your logic and I would agree with you on the fact that rising interest rates are going to clobber some people.

I made my prediction over a year ago before the financial crisis showed it's head.

I am going to stick with my prediction, for reasons I have already said, however if I had to revise my predictions now, I would extend the timescale and increase the falls.

But I still think that the affordability of a property on a 25 year repayment mortgage on a 5% 5 year fixed rate will be too tempting to miss out on when the monthly payments are less than your rent.