Wednesday, 4 June 2008

Henley by-election

Apparently Chris Grayling will be leading the Tory campaign, whenever it is announced. But I wonder if they have any aims apart from winning the seat obviously.

I can think of 3 aims.

1 - To not appear complacent, the big guns have to give as much to this by-election as they did to Crewe & Nantwich.

2 - To ensure that Labour lose their deposit

3 - To take the number of Lib Dem voters down from 2005.

The Lib Dems have to move within striking distance for 2010. So I reckon they will be realistically squeezing Labour to come a good 2nd. They will then be able to claim that it is Labour suffering from the 3 party squeeze.

For Labour they must be aiming not to lose their deposit, hold their 2005 vote and to squeeze the Lib Dem vote. I don't fancy any of these 3 aims.

My prediction

Tory win
Tory % up on 2005
Tory vote down on 2005
Lib Dem vote % up on 2005
Lib Dem vote steady on 2005
Labour collapse down % and number of votes on 2005

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