Tuesday, 17 June 2008

Some further analysis of the June Halifax data

see also


Halifax have adjusted the April 2008 data downwards and this now makes the data the worst 10 months on record as well as the worst 9,8,7,6,5,4,3 months.

If you look at the Halifax data from the last crash the average house peaked at £70,246 in May 1989 and then bottomed out at £60,965 in July 1995. A drop of 13.2% and this was called a crash.

This time prices peaked at £199,600 in August 2007 and have fallen 7.8% to date.

In Great Crash 1 the housing market took 3 years to drop 7.7%, this time it has happened in 9 months.

As lenders continue to credit tighten and increase rates, so it becomes more unaffordable to buy or to keep mortgage payments up to date.

The gulf between where property is being marketed and what finance is available continues to widen.

I am still predicting continued monthly falls (with the occasional positive months) for several years. I am still seeing substantial falls or around 25% from the peak over the next year and then gradual falls for a further 2 years to give a total drop of around 35% from the August peak.

I will continue to update my predictions as well as the time to buy index. I suspect that the falls will not actually end up as severe as the 35% I am currently predicting because for these falls to materialise houses actually have to be sold.

No comments: