Thursday, 9 October 2008

Halifax data out for September 2008

Month on month house prices are down 1.3%. The Halifax report house prices down 12.4% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is 13.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. September 2007 average house price was £198,533 against £172,108 for September 2008. A drop of £26,425 in a year.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 13.8% from the peak in August 2007 13 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now worse than the 89-95 housing crash and we have only just got going.

The last time house prices were at this level was February 2006 at £173,095.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.


Would be F.T.B. said...


Anonymous said...

Good analysis, but more likely prices will bottom out around the "average" £120k in nominal term by q4 2010.

Anonymous said...

Where's your time to buy index?