Month on month house prices are down 1.3%. The Halifax report house prices down 12.4% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.
The true yearly drop is 13.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. September 2007 average house price was £198,533 against £172,108 for September 2008. A drop of £26,425 in a year.
The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%
House prices have fallen 13.8% from the peak in August 2007 13 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.
This housing crash is now worse than the 89-95 housing crash and we have only just got going.
The last time house prices were at this level was February 2006 at £173,095.
Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.
Thursday, 9 October 2008
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3 comments:
Hoorah!!
Good analysis, but more likely prices will bottom out around the "average" £120k in nominal term by q4 2010.
Where's your time to buy index?
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