After the shocking house price data from Nationwide today, SKY news wheeled out a property economist for a bit of analysis.
Oh here we go I thought, another load of old spin to try to gloss over the major housing problems that exist.
Well how wrong I was - the interview was an absolute bear fest and I am sure she must be signed up on housepricecrash.co.uk maybe she is ERIC or Realistbear.
Anyway - watch the interview here
Basically she says that things are as bad if not worse than the 1990 crash, which some of us have been saying for years. She has finally put a bearish, but realistic view on the mainstream news channels.
Thursday, 29 May 2008
Is this a housing crash Fionnula Earley ?
SKY news puts the key question to Fionnula Earley from Nationwide
Cue a lot of bluster and stutter. It was only last December that she was predicting a flat market. Now that the housing market has fallen off a cliff she is predicting single digit falls this year. Do keep up Fi with predictions like that I'm surprised she has not changed her name to Fionnula Lately.
It's not clear if that is single digit falls for the year or single digit falls each month for the rest of the year.
Cue a lot of bluster and stutter. It was only last December that she was predicting a flat market. Now that the housing market has fallen off a cliff she is predicting single digit falls this year. Do keep up Fi with predictions like that I'm surprised she has not changed her name to Fionnula Lately.
It's not clear if that is single digit falls for the year or single digit falls each month for the rest of the year.
Nationwide report serious house price falls in May
Nationwide have just released their May house price data. This is showing the worst data since their records began and that house price falls are accelerating.
-2.5% for the month of May and -4.4% for the year.
www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf
Looks like Gordon Brown has managed to create a mega bust.
see Sky news breaking news here.
-2.5% for the month of May and -4.4% for the year.
www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf
Looks like Gordon Brown has managed to create a mega bust.
see Sky news breaking news here.
Tuesday, 27 May 2008
Gordon and the fire
Once upon a time there was a man called Gordon Brown and he was left in charge of a bonfire. The people said 'Don't forget Gordon, the fire must not go out or we will get cold, but it also must not burn too bright or all the fuel will get used up. Don't forget to collect wood to put on the fire in case it starts to go out'
So Gordon tended the fire, it was already burning well when he started to tend it. All went well for a while, but then it started to burn brighter and brighter. Gordon was happy 'Look people are you not feeling warm'
Some of the people were worried ' Is it not burning too bright though?' Gordon did not like to be criticised ' Do you want the fire to go out?'
Some of the people were still worried 'Can it not burn a little less bright without going out?' But their voices were drowned out by Gordon's friends.
Soon some of Gordon's friends were in need of firewood so Gordon gave them the firewood. Some of the people were worried 'Isn't the firewood there for an emergency?' Gordon did not like to be criticised 'This is the best fire ever' he said.
Some of the people were still worried 'Just because it is the best fire does not mean that it will always be so' But their voices were again drowned out.
Soon the fire started to burn itself out and the people were unhappy. 'Put some more firewood on, we are getting cold' they called. 'This is still the best fire' said Gordon because he had become deranged in the heat and light.
And then the people realised that the man they thought was in charge of the fire was not really in charge. He had not looked after it and had wasted all the firewood. So they pointed the finger at him and said 'we want someone else to look after our fire'
Gordon was unmoving 'I just need to restate the fact that this is the best fire, then you will understand.'
'But the fire is going out' cried the people. 'No it isn't' said Gordon.
Soon there were only a few flickers of flames where once the mighty fire had stood.
Even Gordon could no longer deny that the fire was almost out 'The wood was too dry' said Gordon 'it was already out of control when I started looking after it, what would someone else do? the fire is structurally sound. The Yanks gave me wet wood for the fire'
But the people saw through him. 'when the fire was burning well, you said that it was because you were so good at fire tending. Now it is out how come it is everybody else's fault and not yours'
'Yeah well' said Gordon 'Those Toffs would do no better' Gordon was now so delusionally deranged that only insults were left.
'We don't care. We trusted you with our fire and you let us down' said the people' You are barking mad. Stand aside and let us have a choice'
'I have 2 years left of my mandate, I just need to show you I am thinking of the long term and I will not be distracted' said Gordon. But some of Gordon's friends realised that the game was up and carted him off to a secure unit.
Step forward Mr & Mrs Balls
God save our souls
So Gordon tended the fire, it was already burning well when he started to tend it. All went well for a while, but then it started to burn brighter and brighter. Gordon was happy 'Look people are you not feeling warm'
Some of the people were worried ' Is it not burning too bright though?' Gordon did not like to be criticised ' Do you want the fire to go out?'
Some of the people were still worried 'Can it not burn a little less bright without going out?' But their voices were drowned out by Gordon's friends.
Soon some of Gordon's friends were in need of firewood so Gordon gave them the firewood. Some of the people were worried 'Isn't the firewood there for an emergency?' Gordon did not like to be criticised 'This is the best fire ever' he said.
Some of the people were still worried 'Just because it is the best fire does not mean that it will always be so' But their voices were again drowned out.
Soon the fire started to burn itself out and the people were unhappy. 'Put some more firewood on, we are getting cold' they called. 'This is still the best fire' said Gordon because he had become deranged in the heat and light.
And then the people realised that the man they thought was in charge of the fire was not really in charge. He had not looked after it and had wasted all the firewood. So they pointed the finger at him and said 'we want someone else to look after our fire'
Gordon was unmoving 'I just need to restate the fact that this is the best fire, then you will understand.'
'But the fire is going out' cried the people. 'No it isn't' said Gordon.
Soon there were only a few flickers of flames where once the mighty fire had stood.
Even Gordon could no longer deny that the fire was almost out 'The wood was too dry' said Gordon 'it was already out of control when I started looking after it, what would someone else do? the fire is structurally sound. The Yanks gave me wet wood for the fire'
But the people saw through him. 'when the fire was burning well, you said that it was because you were so good at fire tending. Now it is out how come it is everybody else's fault and not yours'
'Yeah well' said Gordon 'Those Toffs would do no better' Gordon was now so delusionally deranged that only insults were left.
'We don't care. We trusted you with our fire and you let us down' said the people' You are barking mad. Stand aside and let us have a choice'
'I have 2 years left of my mandate, I just need to show you I am thinking of the long term and I will not be distracted' said Gordon. But some of Gordon's friends realised that the game was up and carted him off to a secure unit.
Step forward Mr & Mrs Balls
God save our souls
sub prime mortgage payments
www.ft.com
The FT is reporting that 21% of all sub prime mortgages are more than 30 days behind on their payments.
This is a massive number and links in with the whole sub prime/liar loans/self cert fiasco that has been going on for many years now.
The most vulnerable borrowers have been let down by the markets as their lenders pull out of offering new mortgages leaving borrowers on significantly higher rates than before.
I'm sure that many months after things have got even worse, the FSA and government may come up with some proposals to help.
The FT is reporting that 21% of all sub prime mortgages are more than 30 days behind on their payments.
This is a massive number and links in with the whole sub prime/liar loans/self cert fiasco that has been going on for many years now.
The most vulnerable borrowers have been let down by the markets as their lenders pull out of offering new mortgages leaving borrowers on significantly higher rates than before.
I'm sure that many months after things have got even worse, the FSA and government may come up with some proposals to help.
Friday, 23 May 2008
Gordon Brown's Fightback has started
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/index.htmlHe only has himself to fight back against now. Will he ever get the fact that it is him that people are fed up of?
Crewe by-election result
Obviously a massive win for the Tories, the big news of course is how voters turned to the Tories rather than the Lib Dems or the smaller parties.
There were some rather amusing lines from the politicians last night. Of my favourite three, two were from the Lib Dems and one was from Dunwoody jnr.
Firstly Lynne Featherstone claimed that they came third because the campaign was only 2 weeks long. If the campaign had been longer then they would have come second and maybe won! How she draws this conclusion when the Lib Dem vote fell by 4% from the General Election I do not know.
Secondly Elizabeth Shenton claimed that their vote had held up. Again I'm not sure how she figures this one as the Lib Dem vote was 6040 compared to 8083 at the General election. A drop of 25%
Thirdly Dunwoody jnr claimed that the Labour vote held up and she lost because the Tories got their vote out. Again the Labour vote was 12679 compared to 21240 at the general election a drop of 40%.
I love election nights - cutting through the garbage that is spoken.
There were some rather amusing lines from the politicians last night. Of my favourite three, two were from the Lib Dems and one was from Dunwoody jnr.
Firstly Lynne Featherstone claimed that they came third because the campaign was only 2 weeks long. If the campaign had been longer then they would have come second and maybe won! How she draws this conclusion when the Lib Dem vote fell by 4% from the General Election I do not know.
Secondly Elizabeth Shenton claimed that their vote had held up. Again I'm not sure how she figures this one as the Lib Dem vote was 6040 compared to 8083 at the General election. A drop of 25%
Thirdly Dunwoody jnr claimed that the Labour vote held up and she lost because the Tories got their vote out. Again the Labour vote was 12679 compared to 21240 at the general election a drop of 40%.
I love election nights - cutting through the garbage that is spoken.
Thursday, 22 May 2008
Rightmove data
Since January I have been checking house prices in my area on Rightmove and saving the results weekly (I do have a life really!)
There has been very few property sales going through, but also little in the way of price reductions.
In the last 2 weeks I have been getting a notification from Rightmove through almost every other day with a 'new' property listing. This is in fact not a new listing but an existing property relisted with a lower price.
Recently these relisted properties have been coming on with larger and larger reductions. Most with 5% reductions, a lot with 10% plus reductions.
Some data coming through is indicating a few offers being accepted at around 20% under the original asking price.
This should make for some interesting data from Halifax and Nationwide over the next few weeks.
There has been very few property sales going through, but also little in the way of price reductions.
In the last 2 weeks I have been getting a notification from Rightmove through almost every other day with a 'new' property listing. This is in fact not a new listing but an existing property relisted with a lower price.
Recently these relisted properties have been coming on with larger and larger reductions. Most with 5% reductions, a lot with 10% plus reductions.
Some data coming through is indicating a few offers being accepted at around 20% under the original asking price.
This should make for some interesting data from Halifax and Nationwide over the next few weeks.
Tuesday, 20 May 2008
Polly shoots and misses
Good old Polly Toynbee has an article today about the state of the Labour party
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/
In the article she writes this
>
Yet there at Eagle Bridge stands a magnificent huge new health centre just opened, with 18 GPs and myriad specialist clinics. When people ask where has the tax money gone, here's the answer: more and better staff in buildings so fine that 10 years ago you'd have sworn they must be private, not state.
>
Now I'm no expert on the financing of these contracts however a quick google reveals
http://www.cecpct.nhs.uk/upload/Documents/News%20-%20Press%20Releases/
>
The Honourable Gwyneth Dunwoody MP cut the ribbon and officially welcomed the new £10million health development by Assura Property.
Assura forward funded the purchase of the site on Dunwoody Way in 2006 and the subsequent development
>
http://www.assuraproperty.co.uk/faqs.aspx
Now does this not mean that the tax payer money has actually not funded this project? and that it is actually privately financed?
Which begs the question - where has all the tax gone?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/
In the article she writes this
>
Yet there at Eagle Bridge stands a magnificent huge new health centre just opened, with 18 GPs and myriad specialist clinics. When people ask where has the tax money gone, here's the answer: more and better staff in buildings so fine that 10 years ago you'd have sworn they must be private, not state.
>
Now I'm no expert on the financing of these contracts however a quick google reveals
http://www.cecpct.nhs.uk/upload/Documents/News%20-%20Press%20Releases/
>
The Honourable Gwyneth Dunwoody MP cut the ribbon and officially welcomed the new £10million health development by Assura Property.
Assura forward funded the purchase of the site on Dunwoody Way in 2006 and the subsequent development
>
http://www.assuraproperty.co.uk/faqs.aspx
Now does this not mean that the tax payer money has actually not funded this project? and that it is actually privately financed?
Which begs the question - where has all the tax gone?
Friday, 16 May 2008
Shared Equity shock
With Gordon Brown announcing the extension of his shared equity schemes - I thought I would take a closer look.
With shared equity schemes you would take a mortgage out to buy a property and also take a loan out with a housing association(HA). The HA loan is based on a % of the property so you might buy a flat for £200,000 with a £100,000 mortgage and a 50% (£100,000) HA loan. You pay a small % interest rate on the HA loan.
Now if property is forecast to fall by around 10% by Caroline Flint the housing minister that flat is going to be worth £180,000 in the near future.
If the buyer then decides that they want to sell the property, they have to repay the £100,000 mortgage and the 50% (of the lower sale price £180,000). So that is £100,000 and £90,000 = £190,000.
But they only have £180,000 or more like £176,000 after fees. so they are £14,000 short.
Is it ethical to encourage individuals to borrow money to buy into an asset that you predict will fall and leave the buyer in negative equity?
Does this government have any morals?
With shared equity schemes you would take a mortgage out to buy a property and also take a loan out with a housing association(HA). The HA loan is based on a % of the property so you might buy a flat for £200,000 with a £100,000 mortgage and a 50% (£100,000) HA loan. You pay a small % interest rate on the HA loan.
Now if property is forecast to fall by around 10% by Caroline Flint the housing minister that flat is going to be worth £180,000 in the near future.
If the buyer then decides that they want to sell the property, they have to repay the £100,000 mortgage and the 50% (of the lower sale price £180,000). So that is £100,000 and £90,000 = £190,000.
But they only have £180,000 or more like £176,000 after fees. so they are £14,000 short.
Is it ethical to encourage individuals to borrow money to buy into an asset that you predict will fall and leave the buyer in negative equity?
Does this government have any morals?
Tuesday, 13 May 2008
Dunwoody can't confirm if Brown is an asset
It comes to something when even a PPC doesn't think the leader is an asset.
watch and weep with this MORE4 news interview
watch and weep with this MORE4 news interview
The government admits house prices are falling
Oh dear
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/
'Given present trends, they will clearly show sizeable falls in prices later this year - at best down 5 per cent -10 per cent year on year'
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/
'Given present trends, they will clearly show sizeable falls in prices later this year - at best down 5 per cent -10 per cent year on year'
A photographer gets a good photo and at last we find out what the government really thinks.
'But we need to plan now to put in place effective measures against the risk that it does get worse'
You mean that there are no plans in place currently!!!
God save us all
'But we need to plan now to put in place effective measures against the risk that it does get worse'
You mean that there are no plans in place currently!!!
God save us all
RICS survey shows worst market since records began
Some extracts from the comments in the RICS survey
Oh well at least the graoh
Oh well at least the graoh
Sunday, 11 May 2008
Labour have had their Black Wednesday moment
In 1992 the Tories under John Major, lost control of economic policy as global speculators moved in and forced the Government to abandon their membership of the ERM. This was dubbed Black Wednesday and was seen as a key moment in the economic and political landscape.
After this date the Tories were on the back foot over the economy and Labour were able to dismiss claims of Tory competence over the economy.
Labour have had their Black Wednesday moment with the realisation that Gordon Brown had removed the 10p rate of tax without appropriate compensation for the losers. Worse was that Gordon Brown claimed that there were no losers, deceiving his party and the electorate. It was only when the Labour backbenchers temporarily found their backbone, that he was forced to admit that there were losers and try to implement some botched compensation measure.
From this day forwards Labour will not be able to claim that they champion the cause of the poor as the 10p rate will be thrown back at them until Gordon leaves office.
Let's be clear here, the Labour party remains above the 10p chaos. Nobody believes that the Labour Party wants to tax the poor, but it seems that Gordon Brown did want to tax the poor and he nearly got away with it.
Labour's only hope now is to dispose of Gordon and try to win back the respect of the voters. The Crewe by-election will be a horror show for Labour, but can they start afresh with a new leader in time to win a general election.
After this date the Tories were on the back foot over the economy and Labour were able to dismiss claims of Tory competence over the economy.
Labour have had their Black Wednesday moment with the realisation that Gordon Brown had removed the 10p rate of tax without appropriate compensation for the losers. Worse was that Gordon Brown claimed that there were no losers, deceiving his party and the electorate. It was only when the Labour backbenchers temporarily found their backbone, that he was forced to admit that there were losers and try to implement some botched compensation measure.
From this day forwards Labour will not be able to claim that they champion the cause of the poor as the 10p rate will be thrown back at them until Gordon leaves office.
Let's be clear here, the Labour party remains above the 10p chaos. Nobody believes that the Labour Party wants to tax the poor, but it seems that Gordon Brown did want to tax the poor and he nearly got away with it.
Labour's only hope now is to dispose of Gordon and try to win back the respect of the voters. The Crewe by-election will be a horror show for Labour, but can they start afresh with a new leader in time to win a general election.
Thursday, 8 May 2008
Tackling the Brownies
To clarify what a Brownie is
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/
In this example Gordon claims 1 million children have been lifted out of poverty however figures show that the figure is 600,000
Today at Shadow Deputy Leader of the House Shailesh Vara put the question of the 1 million to the Dep Leader. You won't be surprised to hear that he received no answer
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/
In this example Gordon claims 1 million children have been lifted out of poverty however figures show that the figure is 600,000
Today at Shadow Deputy Leader of the House Shailesh Vara put the question of the 1 million to the Dep Leader. You won't be surprised to hear that he received no answer
The Wendyendum debate
So Gordon Brown seems to be claiming Wendy is not calling for a referendum on Scottish Independence and that he did not know about it.
How many more fiascos are we going to have to put up with?
see the evidence here
How many more fiascos are we going to have to put up with?
see the evidence here
Wednesday, 7 May 2008
Vote No to Gordon
http://www.madame-tussauds.co.uk/GordonBrownVote/
Madame Tussauds have a vote to decide if GB should have his waxwork created
You have until the 14th May to vote NO
Madame Tussauds have a vote to decide if GB should have his waxwork created
You have until the 14th May to vote NO
Dave and the 10p rate
I fail to understand why the Tories are having such a hard time explaining what they would do with the 10p rate.
how about this?
Questioner - would you reinstate the 10p band.
DC - Right now we are not in government and so we cannot do anything. If Gordon Brown was to find his bottle and call an election right now, then we would look at ways of compensating those who have had a tax increase. Look firstly we would not have increased the tax burden on the lowest paid it is immoral.
The problem is not that the 10p rate was removed, but that the tax burden has been increased on the lowest paid. Gordon Brown has spent all the money he raised by removing the 10p band and so there is no money available to reinstate the 10p band and anyway removing the 10p band is a good way to simplify the tax regime as long as you compensate the tax losers and don't try to con the public that there are no tax losers.
So if we were elected now as a governing party we would immediately look at the last budget and introduce measures that would compensate those hit by this tax con budget, maybe by raising the level at which tax is started to be paid or introducing new rates or reliefs.
After our first budget we would ensure that all those who have lost out by the removal of the 10p band would be compensated.
The real question is when will Gordon Brown call an election, so we can get on with helping the lowest paid.
how about this?
Questioner - would you reinstate the 10p band.
DC - Right now we are not in government and so we cannot do anything. If Gordon Brown was to find his bottle and call an election right now, then we would look at ways of compensating those who have had a tax increase. Look firstly we would not have increased the tax burden on the lowest paid it is immoral.
The problem is not that the 10p rate was removed, but that the tax burden has been increased on the lowest paid. Gordon Brown has spent all the money he raised by removing the 10p band and so there is no money available to reinstate the 10p band and anyway removing the 10p band is a good way to simplify the tax regime as long as you compensate the tax losers and don't try to con the public that there are no tax losers.
So if we were elected now as a governing party we would immediately look at the last budget and introduce measures that would compensate those hit by this tax con budget, maybe by raising the level at which tax is started to be paid or introducing new rates or reliefs.
After our first budget we would ensure that all those who have lost out by the removal of the 10p band would be compensated.
The real question is when will Gordon Brown call an election, so we can get on with helping the lowest paid.
Monday, 5 May 2008
Harriet Harperson to the rescue
Panic over - New Labour have wheeled out their big guns and pushed my favourite live bait into the limelight.
Enter Harriet 'it's not as bad as under the Tories' Harperson. She generally answers a question by answering a different question and blaming the Tories i.e. 'House prices are falling what are you going to do about it? HH - We are listening and learning and house prices are not falling as much as under the Tories'
Here she excels herself on a tax question by saying that people are not paying as much tax now as they were under the last Labour administration.
Pure genius
Enter Harriet 'it's not as bad as under the Tories' Harperson. She generally answers a question by answering a different question and blaming the Tories i.e. 'House prices are falling what are you going to do about it? HH - We are listening and learning and house prices are not falling as much as under the Tories'
Here she excels herself on a tax question by saying that people are not paying as much tax now as they were under the last Labour administration.
Pure genius
Sunday, 4 May 2008
Boris for London
So with the Election of Boris as London Mayor, why do I think this is good news.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/Cartoon/
Well now we have an Old Etonian and ex Bullingdon club member running London and at last we can now see what will happen. It is like a test for the country to see what could happen when bottler Brown has the guts to go to the country.
We will either see a total shambles as New Labour have predicted or we will see the charismatic delegation abilities that I believe is so necessary in a leader and he will be a great success for London and the Tories.
Boris becoming the mayor of London will reveal the nasty New Labour spin machine for the deceitful bunch they are.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/Cartoon/Since Boris announced that he was running for mayor, we have had New Labour and their lackeys start the nasty comments. They have used phrases like upper class twit and Tory toff as a means to insult and convey to the electorate a person that, because of their upbringing and education, are not fit to lead a political organisation.
The same is true of the nasty comments about Cameron, implying that because he has had a privileged upbringing, he is unfit to lead.
Comments about Eton and the Bullingdon club just fuel the New Labour spin of hatred.
The same is true of the nasty comments about Cameron, implying that because he has had a privileged upbringing, he is unfit to lead.
Comments about Eton and the Bullingdon club just fuel the New Labour spin of hatred.
Well now we have an Old Etonian and ex Bullingdon club member running London and at last we can now see what will happen. It is like a test for the country to see what could happen when bottler Brown has the guts to go to the country.
We will either see a total shambles as New Labour have predicted or we will see the charismatic delegation abilities that I believe is so necessary in a leader and he will be a great success for London and the Tories.
Boris becoming the mayor of London will reveal the nasty New Labour spin machine for the deceitful bunch they are.
Brown's relaunch
Peter Brookes has a great cartoon today in the times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
Saturday, 3 May 2008
Halifax Nostalgia
Just found this in an old paper from January 1989 for the halifax house price index
Best bit of Boris acceptance speech
This bit made me laugh and Ken just manages to hold back a huge smile.
Friday, 2 May 2008
Halifax data now shows a yearly fall
Halifax housing data out today 2nd May 2008 is now showing a yearly fall of 0.9% after a monthly fall of 1.3%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7378215.stm
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/HousingResearch.asp
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7378215.stm
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/HousingResearch.asp
Sun early morning headline
I know that the Sun has immigration on the mind, but is it so difficult to understand the difference between a poll and a Pole?
update - it is now corrected
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