Thursday, 5 February 2009

Halifax data out for January 2009

Are you sitting down? Looks like the government's £500 billion was well spent because Halifax have house prices rising by 1.9%!! No fudging there then.

To be fair the report is bearish for the market and does mark this as a positive number within a falling market.

They report house prices down 17.2% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is 16.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis. House prices peaked in August 2007 at £199,612 against £163,996 for January 2009. A drop of £35,646.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 17.8% from the peak in August 2007 16 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now worse than the 89-95 housing crash and we are probably half way through now.

The last time house prices were at this level was August 2005.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.


Martin Cole said...

So most buyers who bought before 2003 will still be doing OK on this prognosis, but what will the pounds then be worth?

In 2003 there had already been years of mad property price inglation.

It seems to me that at some point values have to be re-established in absolutes. A Town Clerks salary should allow a 4 bedroomed detached, a mid-ranking secondary school teacher or Police Inspector a three-bed semi etc (examples only)

Can we not find an index of house prices set against Civil Service pay scales or some such instead of talking in Sterling which will soon be just so much lavatory paper?

Oldrightie said...

I'd trust you data before any Government lent on Bank!